Al Sadd
vs
Al Ahli Doha
3 – 1 Full time
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha
| Probability | Al Sadd | Draw | Al Ahli Doha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 19.9% | 24.9% |
| Market | 67.4% | 18.3% | 14.3% |
| Final | 64.3% | 18.7% | 17.0% |
| Edge | -12.2% | +1.6% | +10.6% |
Why Al Sadd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.53 vs 1.71.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Sadd and Al Ahli Doha expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.25
Al Sadd and Al Ahli Doha attack and defence ratings
Al Sadd
Al Ahli Doha
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha: result vs prediction
Al Sadd 3 – 1 Al Ahli Doha
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 64.3% | 1.55 | -12.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 64.3% |
| Draw | 18.7% | |
| Al Ahli Doha | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.1% |
| No | 23.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 35.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.9% |
| 1-1 | 6.8% | |
| 2-2 | 6.7% |
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha stats
Al Sadd and Al Ahli Doha recent form
| Al Sadd |
WWDLLW |
| Al Ahli Doha |
WWDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Al Sadd | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Al Ahli Doha | Al Sadd | Stars League | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Sadd vs Al Ahli Doha odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.6%, draw 18.3%, away 14.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.31 | 5.00 | 7.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.78 |
| 888Sport | 1.36 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betano | 1.39 | 5.10 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.37 | 5.20 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 5.00 | 6.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.38 | 5.43 | 6.63 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.59 | 5.70 |
| Superbet | 1.37 | 5.15 | 6.10 |
| Unibet | 1.30 | 4.90 | 6.75 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .