Al Ahli Doha
vs
Lusail City
3 – 3 Full time
Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City
| Probability | Al Ahli Doha | Draw | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 25.6% | 33.4% |
| Market | 57.9% | 22.0% | 20.1% |
| Final | 53.6% | 22.9% | 23.4% |
| Edge | -16.9% | +3.6% | +13.3% |
Why Al Ahli Doha
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ahli Doha and Lusail City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Al Ahli Doha and Lusail City attack and defence ratings
Al Ahli Doha
Lusail City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City: result vs prediction
Al Ahli Doha 3 – 3 Lusail City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Doha | 53.6% | 1.86 | -16.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Doha | 53.6% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Lusail City | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Doha win | 21.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City stats
Al Ahli Doha and Lusail City recent form
| Al Ahli Doha |
LWWDWD |
| Lusail City |
L |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Lusail City | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Ahli Doha vs Lusail City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.9%, draw 22.0%, away 20.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 4.65 |
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.15 | 4.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.15 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.35 | 4.59 |
| Superbet | 1.59 | 4.25 | 4.55 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .