Stars League
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Al-Gharafa
vs
Al Shamal
1 – 3 Full time
Al-Gharafa
38%
Draw
26%
Al Shamal
37%
Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal
| Probability | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Al Shamal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 25.5% | 36.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 37.6% | 25.5% | 36.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
84%
3+ goals
62%
No goals
5%
Al-Gharafa and Al Shamal expected goals
Al-Gharafa
1.61
Al Shamal
1.59
Total expected goals: 3.20
Al-Gharafa and Al Shamal attack and defence ratings
Al-Gharafa
Attack
0.92 -8%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Al Shamal
Attack
0.86 -14%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal: result vs prediction
Al-Gharafa 1 – 3 Al Shamal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 37.6% | 2.66 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 37.6% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Al Shamal | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Gharafa win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal stats
Al-Gharafa and Al Shamal recent form
| Al-Gharafa |
WDDLLL |
| Al Shamal |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Shamal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Al-Gharafa wins
4Draws
4Al Shamal wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | Stars League | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | QSL Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Al Shamal | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-08 | Al Shamal | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-2 |
| 2024-10-12 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | QSL Cup | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-13 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | Stars League | 1-1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Al Shamal | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-09 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | Stars League | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-19 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | QSL Cup | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-20 | Al-Gharafa | Al Shamal | Stars League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.