Al Sadd
vs
Al-Gharafa
4 – 1 Full time
| 5′ | Yusuf Abdurisag | ||
| 12′ | Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel | ||
| 39′ | Dame TraoreFlorinel Coman | ||
| 50′ | Akram Afif | ||
| 59′ | Seydou Sano | ||
| 65′ | Yusuf AbdurisagHassan Al-Haydos | ||
| 65′ | Hashim AliMohamed Manai | ||
| 66′ | Ferjani Sassi | ||
| 76′ | Pedro MiguelYounes El Hannach | ||
| 76′ | Guilherme TorresAgustin soria | ||
| 78′ | Fabricio Díaz | ||
| 82′ | Yacine Brahimi | ||
| 85′ | Akram AfifMostafa Mashaal | ||
| 87′ | Hyun-Soo JangHassan Aladin | ||
| 90′ | Roberto Firmino |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 19 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 411 | Accurate passes | 393 |
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa
| Probability | Al Sadd | Draw | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.8% | 14.4% | 11.9% |
| Market | 65.2% | 18.1% | 16.8% |
| Final | 67.3% | 17.1% | 15.5% |
| Edge | +8.6% | -3.7% | -4.9% |
Why Al Sadd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.22 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Al Sadd below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.56
Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa attack and defence ratings
Al Sadd
Al-Gharafa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa: result vs prediction
Al Sadd 4 – 1 Al-Gharafa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 67.3% | 1.49 | +8.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 67.3% |
| Draw | 17.1% | |
| Al-Gharafa | 15.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.2% |
| No | 28.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win | 56.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.8% | |
| Loss | 26.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.8% |
| 2-1 | 7.3% | |
| 4-1 | 6.3% |
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa stats
Al Sadd and Al-Gharafa recent form
| Al Sadd |
WWWWDL |
| Al-Gharafa |
LWDDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Al Sadd | Al-Gharafa | Qatar Cup | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Al-Gharafa | Al Sadd | Emir Cup | 4-1 |
| 2026-01-31 | Al-Gharafa | Al Sadd | Stars League | 1-3 |
| 2025-09-01 | Al-Gharafa | Al Sadd | QSL Cup | 3-3 |
| 2025-08-28 | Al Sadd | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-14 | Al-Gharafa | Al Sadd | Emir Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-02-27 | Al-Gharafa | Al Sadd | Stars League | 0-4 |
| 2024-09-26 | Al Sadd | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 4-2 |
| 2024-03-06 | Al-Gharafa | Al Sadd | Stars League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Sadd vs Al-Gharafa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.2%, draw 18.1%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.37 | 5.10 | 5.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.40 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 5.00 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.36 | 5.10 | 5.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.46 | 5.39 | 5.39 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .