Stars League
·
Full time
·Matchday 4
Al-Gharafa
vs
Lusail City
0 – 0 Full time
| 23′ | Ferjani Sassi | ||
| 58′ | Mohamed Aiash | ||
| 64′ | Florinel ComanAdam Ounas | ||
| 70′ | Yacine BrahimiHassan Aladin | ||
| 74′ | Khaled Mohammed | ||
| 79′ | Rodrigo MachadoGeorg Stojanovski | ||
| 80′ | Omid EbrahimiTiago Geralnik | ||
| 80′ | Khaled MohammedMuhammad Taher Khan | ||
| 81′ | Amro SuragRayyan Ahmed Al-Ali | ||
| 85′ | Naif Al-HadhramiSaud Jjbril | ||
| 90′ | Mohamed AiashAli Karami |
Al-Gharafa
17%
Draw
19%
Lusail City
64%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 395 | Accurate passes | 331 |
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City
| Probability | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.4% | 19.0% | 63.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 17.4% | 19.0% | 63.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lusail City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.58 vs 1.33.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
91%
3+ goals
75%
No goals
3%
Al-Gharafa and Lusail City expected goals
Al-Gharafa
1.33
Lusail City
2.58
Total expected goals: 3.92
Al-Gharafa and Lusail City attack and defence ratings
Al-Gharafa
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
1.31 +31%
Lusail City
Attack
1.17 +17%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City: result vs prediction
Al-Gharafa 0 – 0 Lusail City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 17.4% |
| Draw | 19.0% | |
| Lusail City | 63.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.8% |
| No | 31.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win | 43.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 36.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-3 | 7.6% | |
| 1-1 | 7.5% |
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City stats
Al-Gharafa and Lusail City recent form
| Al-Gharafa |
LLWDDL |
| Lusail City |
WDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Gharafa vs Lusail City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
0Al-Gharafa wins
1Draws
1Lusail City wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City | QSL Cup | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-04 | Al-Gharafa | Lusail City | QFA Cup | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.