Stars League
·
Full time
·Matchday 5
Al Wakrah
vs
Al-Gharafa
3 – 2 Full time
| 38′ | Aissa Laïdouni | ||
| 45′ | Yacine Brahimi | ||
| 48′ | Ferjani Sassi | ||
| 54′ | Abdulrahman Al-Rashidi | ||
| 54′ | Abdelrahman ZakyGelson Dala | ||
| 71′ | Nabil IrfanRabh Boussafi | ||
| 71′ | Ayoub AssalMohamed Simo | ||
| 72′ | Pedro Rui da Mota Vieira Martins | ||
| 78′ | Gelson Dala | ||
| 82′ | Abdulrahman Al-RashidiAmro Surag | ||
| 82′ | Amine ZouhzouhAlmahdi Ali | ||
| 85′ | Seydou Sano | ||
| 87′ | Ferjani SassiHassan Aladin | ||
| 90′ | Gelson Dala | ||
| 90′ | Gelson Dala | ||
| 90′ | Omar Salah |
Al Wakrah
48%
Draw
24%
Al-Gharafa
28%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 24 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 40 | Possession % | 60 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 6 | Saves | 2 |
| 243 | Accurate passes | 404 |
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa
| Probability | Al Wakrah | Draw | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 23.8% | 28.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 48.3% | 23.8% | 28.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al Wakrah
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.48.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
66%
No goals
4%
Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa expected goals
Al Wakrah
1.94
Al-Gharafa
1.48
Total expected goals: 3.42
Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa attack and defence ratings
Al Wakrah
Attack
0.97 -3%
Defence
1.11 +11%
Al-Gharafa
Attack
0.80 -20%
Defence
1.19 +19%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa: result vs prediction
Al Wakrah 3 – 2 Al-Gharafa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Wakrah | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.2% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Wakrah | 48.3% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Al-Gharafa | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.0% |
| No | 33.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Wakrah win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 52.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 6.8% |
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa stats
Al Wakrah and Al-Gharafa recent form
| Al Wakrah |
DLLDWD |
| Al-Gharafa |
DLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Al Wakrah wins
4Draws
5Al-Gharafa wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Al Wakrah | Al-Gharafa | Emir Cup | 0-0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Al Wakrah | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 3-3 |
| 2025-12-13 | Al Wakrah | Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup | 2-3 |
| 2025-11-21 | Al-Gharafa | Al Wakrah | Stars League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-11 | Al Wakrah | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-22 | Al-Gharafa | Al Wakrah | Stars League | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-06 | Al-Gharafa | Al Wakrah | QSL Cup | 0-3 |
| 2024-04-24 | Al Wakrah | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 2-4 |
| 2023-12-02 | Al-Gharafa | Al Wakrah | Stars League | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-04 | Al Wakrah | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 0-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.