Al-Rayyan SC
vs
Al-Gharafa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Rayyan SC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa
| Probability | Al-Rayyan SC | Draw | Al-Gharafa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.5% | 18.5% | 10.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 70.5% | 18.5% | 10.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Rayyan SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.47 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa match preview
Al-Rayyan SC is set to face Al-Gharafa in the Stars League on October 16, 2026. According to our model, Al-Rayyan SC has a 71% probability of winning, while Al-Gharafa stands at 11%. The expected goals for Al-Rayyan SC is 2.40, compared to Al-Gharafa's 0.87. Recent form shows Al-Rayyan SC on a strong run with five consecutive wins, while Al-Gharafa has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with a probability of 11%. Additionally, there is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match and a 53% probability that both teams will score. In their last two head-to-head encounters, Al-Gharafa has won both matches against Al-Rayyan SC.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Rayyan SC and Al-Gharafa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Al-Rayyan SC and Al-Gharafa attack and defence ratings
Al-Rayyan SC
Al-Gharafa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 70.5% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.1% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Rayyan SC win | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Rayyan SC | 70.5% |
| Draw | 18.5% | |
| Al-Gharafa | 10.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.5% |
| No | 46.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 29.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Rayyan SC win | 51.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 26.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 3-0 | 8.8% |
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa stats
Al-Rayyan SC and Al-Gharafa recent form
| Al-Rayyan SC |
WWDWWW |
| Al-Gharafa |
LDLLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Rayyan SC vs Al-Gharafa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Al-Gharafa | Al-Rayyan SC | Stars League | 3-2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Al-Rayyan SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.