Lusail City
vs
Al Shamal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusail City
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Lusail City vs Al Shamal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusail City vs Al Shamal
| Probability | Lusail City | Draw | Al Shamal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.1% | 24.8% | 24.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 51.1% | 24.8% | 24.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lusail City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.23.
Lusail City vs Al Shamal match preview
Lusail City enters the match against Al Shamal with a probability of winning set at 51%, while a draw is estimated at 25% and Al Shamal at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Lusail City, with a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Lusail City stand at 1.86, compared to Al Shamal's 1.23, indicating a potentially competitive encounter.
In terms of recent form, Lusail City has recorded a draw, win, draw, and a loss in their last four matches, while Al Shamal's recent results include a loss, draw, win, win, and another draw, followed by a loss. Our model suggests a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood that both teams will score during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusail City and Al Shamal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.08
Lusail City and Al Shamal attack and defence ratings
Lusail City
Al Shamal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusail City vs Al Shamal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.4% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 51.1% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Al Shamal | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.7% |
| No | 39.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win | 29.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 49.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Lusail City vs Al Shamal stats
Lusail City and Al Shamal recent form
| Lusail City |
DWDL |
| Al Shamal |
LDWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.