Al-Gharafa
vs
Al Ahli Doha
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Gharafa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha
| Probability | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Al Ahli Doha |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.9% | 23.4% | 52.7% |
| Market | 43.1% | 24.3% | 32.6% |
| Final | 38.3% | 24.1% | 37.6% |
| Edge | -19.2% | -0.9% | +20.1% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha match preview
In the upcoming Stars League match, Al-Gharafa faces off against Al Ahli Doha, with both teams having a 38% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Al-Gharafa are 1.32, while Al Ahli Doha has a higher expectation at 2.02. Recent form shows Al-Gharafa struggling with a record of D-L-D-L-L-W, while Al Ahli Doha has alternated results with L-W-L-W-D-L.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Al Ahli Doha, with a 6% probability. Additionally, there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 64% likelihood that both teams will find the net during the match. The head-to-head record favors Al-Gharafa slightly, with 4 wins compared to Al Ahli Doha's 3 in their last 10 encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha attack and defence ratings
Al-Gharafa
Al Ahli Doha
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 38.3% | 2.61 | -19.2% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 38.3% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Al Ahli Doha | 37.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Gharafa win | 10.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.4% | |
| Loss | 76.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 7.2% |
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha stats
Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha recent form
| Al-Gharafa |
DLDLLW |
| Al Ahli Doha |
LWLWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Gharafa and Al Ahli Doha season so far
Al-Gharafa record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Ahli Doha record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Al-Gharafa | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-25 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-3 |
| 2025-01-22 | Al-Gharafa | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-08 | Al-Gharafa | Al Ahli Doha | Emir Cup | 4-3 |
| 2024-02-24 | Al-Gharafa | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-01 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-4 |
| 2023-03-03 | Al-Gharafa | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 1-1 |
| 2022-08-31 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 3-3 |
| 2022-01-07 | Al-Gharafa | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.1%, draw 24.3%, away 32.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.64 | 2.75 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.90 | 2.62 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.75 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.75 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.85 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.64 | 2.69 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12 | 3.94 | 2.92 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .