Garuda Lions
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Stars League · ·Matchday 8

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha

Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ahli Doha

1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.43.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Bet on Al Ahli Doha

Ahmed bin Ali Stadium, Lai Yang

Al Shahaniya 27%
Draw 23%
Al Ahli Doha 49%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Al Ahli Doha wins
49%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
97%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
70%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
9% of simulated outcomes

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl ShahaniyaDrawAl Ahli Doha
Model21.6%20.8%57.7%
Market29.3%24.1%46.6%
Final27.4%23.2%49.4%
Edge-1.9%-0.8%+2.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Al Ahli Doha

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.37 vs 1.43.
  • The market prices Al Ahli Doha below our published probability: +2.8 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.2% per unit staked (our 49.4% × 2.03 − 1).

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha match preview

In the upcoming Stars League match, Al Shahaniya faces Al Ahli Doha, with the probabilities indicating a 27% chance of a home win for Al Shahaniya, a 23% likelihood of a draw, and a 49% chance for an away victory for Al Ahli Doha. The expected goals suggest Al Shahaniya will score 1.43, while Al Ahli Doha is projected to net 2.37 goals. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.

Recent form shows Al Shahaniya with a record of L-L-W-D-L-W, while Al Ahli Doha has D-L-W-L-W-D. In their last 10 encounters, Al Shahaniya has secured 3 wins, 2 draws, and Al Ahli Doha has won 5 times. Our model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 70%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Shahaniya ↓ / Al Ahli Doha → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 5% 5% 1 8% 9% 7% 7% 2 5% 6% 5% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 3%

Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha expected goals

Al Shahaniya 1.43
Al Ahli Doha 2.37

Total expected goals: 3.80

Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha attack and defence ratings

Al Shahaniya

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.28 +28%

Al Ahli Doha

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Stars League

Before and after this match

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Ahli Doha 49.4% 2.03 +2.8% 2.03
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 73.1% 1.37 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.7% 1.43 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.8% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.3% 2.36 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Shahaniya27.4%
Draw23.2%
Al Ahli Doha49.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.573.1%
Under 2.526.9%
Both teams to scoreYes69.7%
No30.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)50.6%
12 (either side)76.8%
X2 (draw or away)72.6%
Handicap -1Al Ahli Doha win37.4%
Push (exactly one goal)20.3%
Loss42.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-29.0%
1-18.3%
1-37.1%
Compare prices for this pick

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha stats

Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha recent form

newest first
Al Shahaniya LLWDLW
Al Ahli Doha DLWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Shahaniya and Al Ahli Doha season so far

league record

Al Shahaniya record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Al Ahli Doha record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Al Shahaniya wins 2Draws 5Al Ahli Doha wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-20Al Ahli DohaAl ShahaniyaQSL Cup0-1
2026-02-27Al Ahli DohaAl ShahaniyaStars League1-2
2025-09-26Al ShahaniyaAl Ahli DohaStars League1-2
2025-05-13Al Ahli DohaAl ShahaniyaEmir Cup2-1
2025-04-04Al ShahaniyaAl Ahli DohaStars League2-3
2024-11-01Al Ahli DohaAl ShahaniyaStars League2-1
2024-10-11Al ShahaniyaAl Ahli DohaQSL Cup1-1
2020-07-26Al ShahaniyaAl Ahli DohaStars League3-1
2019-12-01Al ShahaniyaAl Ahli DohaQSL Cup1-2
2019-10-19Al Ahli DohaAl ShahaniyaStars League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al Shahaniya vs Al Ahli Doha odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 24.1%, away 46.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.17 3.70 1.92
Bet365 3.10 3.80 1.90
BetVictor 3.10 3.75 1.95
Betano 3.15 3.85 2.00
Betfair 3.00 3.80 1.95
Dafabet 3.05 3.85 2.03
Marathonbet 3.10 3.70 1.90
Pinnacle 3.20 4.08 2.03
SBO 2.76 3.32 1.98
William Hill 3.00 3.70 1.95
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.10 ▼ -0.10
X 3.77 ▲ +0.12
2 1.95 —

5 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Al Ahli Doha Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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