Al-Sailiya
vs
Lusail City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusail City
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.08.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City
| Probability | Al-Sailiya | Draw | Lusail City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.0% | 20.8% | 63.2% |
| Market | 27.6% | 25.3% | 47.0% |
| Final | 24.7% | 24.2% | 51.1% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -1.1% | +4.0% |
Why Lusail City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lusail City below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.1% per unit staked (our 51.1% × 2.02 − 1).
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City match preview
In the upcoming Stars League match, Al-Sailiya faces Lusail City with a predicted outcome favoring the visitors. According to our model, Al-Sailiya has a 16% chance of winning, while Lusail City holds a 63% probability of securing the victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.08 for Al-Sailiya and 2.27 for Lusail City.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Al-Sailiya struggling, recording six consecutive matches without a win (L-D-L-L-L-L), while Lusail City has managed one win in their last six (L-D-L-D-W-D). The model indicates a 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance that both teams will score, suggesting an action-packed match ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Sailiya and Lusail City expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
Al-Sailiya and Lusail City attack and defence ratings
Al-Sailiya
Lusail City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 51.1% | 1.96 | +4.0% | 2.02 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Sailiya | 24.7% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| Lusail City | 51.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.2% |
| No | 39.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 36.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 0-2 | 9.0% |
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City stats
Al-Sailiya and Lusail City recent form
| Al-Sailiya |
LDLLLL |
| Lusail City |
LDLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Sailiya and Lusail City season so far
Al-Sailiya record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Lusail City record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-20 | Lusail City | Al-Sailiya | Second Division | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-24 | Al-Sailiya | Lusail City | Second Division | 2-3 |
| 2024-02-28 | Al-Sailiya | Lusail City | Second Division | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-31 | Lusail City | Al-Sailiya | Second Division | 0-1 |
| 2023-09-16 | Lusail City | Al-Sailiya | QFA Cup | 2-3 |
| 2021-04-21 | Lusail City | Al-Sailiya | QFA Cup | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Sailiya vs Lusail City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 25.3%, away 47.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.32 | 3.50 | 1.93 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.91 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.65 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.50 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 3.61 | 3.64 | 1.93 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 |