Lusail City
vs
Qatar SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lusail City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lusail City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lusail City vs Qatar SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusail City vs Qatar SC
| Probability | Lusail City | Draw | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 27.9% | 25.3% |
| Market | 39.4% | 25.9% | 34.6% |
| Final | 41.3% | 26.4% | 32.3% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +0.5% | -2.3% |
Why Lusail City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.07.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.7% per unit staked (our 41.3% × 2.38 − 1).
Lusail City vs Qatar SC match preview
Lusail City faces Qatar SC in the Stars League on November 8, 2026. According to our model, Lusail City has a 47% probability of winning, while Qatar SC stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Lusail City, with an expected goals tally of 1.54 for Lusail City compared to 1.08 for Qatar SC.
In terms of recent form, Lusail City has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Qatar SC has struggled, with one win and four losses in their last six games. The model indicates a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusail City and Qatar SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.61
Lusail City and Qatar SC attack and defence ratings
Lusail City
Qatar SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusail City vs Qatar SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 41.3% | 2.42 | +1.8% | 2.38 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusail City | 41.3% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Qatar SC | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.0% |
| No | 47.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusail City win | 24.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.3% |
Lusail City vs Qatar SC stats
Lusail City and Qatar SC recent form
| Lusail City |
WLDLDW |
| Qatar SC |
LWDLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lusail City and Qatar SC season so far
Lusail City record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Qatar SC record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lusail City vs Qatar SC head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Lusail City vs Qatar SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.4%, draw 25.9%, away 34.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.32 | 3.46 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.55 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.24 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.46 | 2.51 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.62 | 2.77 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .