Al-Gharafa
vs
Al-Duhail SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Duhail SC
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC
| Probability | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Al-Duhail SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.5% | 21.0% | 63.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 15.5% | 21.0% | 63.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Al-Duhail SC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC match preview
Al-Gharafa faces Al-Duhail SC in the Stars League with a challenging matchup ahead. According to our model, Al-Gharafa holds a 15% chance of winning, while Al-Duhail SC is favored with a 64% probability. The expected goals for Al-Gharafa stand at 1.03, compared to Al-Duhail SC's 2.23, indicating a significant offensive disparity. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 10% probability.
Recent form shows Al-Gharafa with mixed results, including two draws and a win in their last six matches, while Al-Duhail SC has been more consistent, recording four wins and two draws in the same period. Additionally, there is a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams scoring has a 58% probability, suggesting an engaging encounter.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC attack and defence ratings
Al-Gharafa
Al-Duhail SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Duhail SC | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Duhail SC win | 41.4% | 2.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 15.5% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Al-Duhail SC | 63.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.3% |
| No | 41.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 36.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Duhail SC win | 41.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 36.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.8% |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 9.5% |
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC stats
Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC recent form
| Al-Gharafa |
WDDLDL |
| Al-Duhail SC |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Gharafa and Al-Duhail SC season so far
Al-Gharafa record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
Al-Duhail SC record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Gharafa vs Al-Duhail SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Al-Duhail SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-14 | Al-Duhail SC | Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Al-Gharafa | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-23 | Al-Duhail SC | Al-Gharafa | Qatar Cup | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Al-Gharafa | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Al-Duhail SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-1 |
| 2024-03-01 | Al-Duhail SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-4 |
| 2023-10-14 | Al-Gharafa | Al-Duhail SC | QSL Cup | 0-2 |
| 2023-09-24 | Al-Gharafa | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League | 3-2 |
| 2023-04-14 | Al-Gharafa | Al-Duhail SC | Stars League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.