Al-Gharafa
vs
Qatar SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Gharafa
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Gharafa is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC
| Probability | Al-Gharafa | Draw | Qatar SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.7% | 25.6% | 41.7% |
| Market | 47.7% | 24.2% | 28.2% |
| Final | 43.9% | 24.5% | 31.5% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +0.3% | +3.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.0% per unit staked (our 43.9% × 1.98 − 1).
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC match preview
Al-Gharafa faces Qatar SC in the Stars League with a probability of 44% for a home win, while Qatar SC has a 32% chance of victory, and a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Al-Gharafa, with a 61% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score. Expected goals are estimated at 1.48 for Al-Gharafa and 1.68 for Qatar SC.
In terms of recent form, Al-Gharafa has struggled with three draws and three losses in their last six matches, while Qatar SC has a mixed record with one win, two draws, and three losses. Historically, Al-Gharafa has had the upper hand in their last ten encounters, winning five times compared to Qatar SC's three victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC attack and defence ratings
Al-Gharafa
Qatar SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 43.9% | 2.28 | -3.7% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Gharafa | 43.9% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Qatar SC | 31.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Gharafa win | 15.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 67.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 7.8% |
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC stats
Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC recent form
| Al-Gharafa |
DDLDLL |
| Qatar SC |
WDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Gharafa and Qatar SC season so far
Al-Gharafa record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Qatar SC record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-12 | Qatar SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-19 | Qatar SC | Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Al-Gharafa | Qatar SC | Stars League | 2-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Al-Gharafa | Qatar SC | Stars League | 4-2 |
| 2024-09-22 | Qatar SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 1-3 |
| 2024-05-19 | Qatar SC | Al-Gharafa | Emir Cup | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-20 | Al-Gharafa | Qatar SC | Stars League | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-17 | Qatar SC | Al-Gharafa | Stars League | 4-4 |
| 2023-04-28 | Al-Gharafa | Qatar SC | Stars League | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-09 | Al-Gharafa | Qatar SC | Emir Cup | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Gharafa vs Qatar SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.7%, draw 24.2%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.13 |
| Dafabet | 1.96 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.98 | 3.71 | 3.60 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.44 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.90 | 2.90 |