Al Sadd
vs
Al Shamal
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Sadd
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.60.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al Sadd is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Sadd vs Al Shamal
| Probability | Al Sadd | Draw | Al Shamal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66.6% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| Market | 62.8% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| Final | 63.8% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.7% | -0.3% |
Why Al Sadd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.07 vs 1.60.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.3% per unit staked (our 63.8% × 1.50 − 1).
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal match preview
Al Sadd enters this match against Al Shamal with a strong probability of winning at 64%, while both teams share an equal chance of a draw or loss at 18%. The model predicts a likely scoreline of 3-1, reflecting Al Sadd's offensive strength with expected goals of 3.07 compared to Al Shamal's 1.60. The high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 84% and both teams scoring at 77% supports the expectation of an engaging match.
Recent form shows Al Sadd with three wins in their last five matches, while Al Shamal has experienced mixed results, including two draws and two wins. Historically, Al Sadd has dominated their encounters, winning 7 out of the last 9 meetings with Al Shamal. This trend adds to the confidence in Al Sadd's performance heading into this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Sadd and Al Shamal expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.67
Al Sadd and Al Shamal attack and defence ratings
Al Sadd
Al Shamal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 63.8% | 1.57 | +0.9% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.5% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win | 48.2% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Sadd | 63.8% |
| Draw | 18.4% | |
| Al Shamal | 17.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.6% |
| No | 23.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Sadd win | 48.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 33.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 7.2% |
| 2-1 | 7.1% | |
| 3-2 | 5.8% |
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal stats
Al Sadd and Al Shamal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Sadd and Al Shamal season so far
Al Sadd record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.9 goals per match.
- They average 5.3 goals per game on the road against 2.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Al Shamal record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Al Shamal | Al Sadd | Emir Cup | 4-6 |
| 2026-04-27 | Al Sadd | Al Shamal | Stars League | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-29 | Al Shamal | Al Sadd | Stars League | 0-3 |
| 2025-01-12 | Al Sadd | Al Shamal | Stars League | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-10 | Al Shamal | Al Sadd | Stars League | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-24 | Al Shamal | Al Sadd | Stars League | 0-4 |
| 2023-12-01 | Al Sadd | Al Shamal | Stars League | 4-0 |
| 2023-03-17 | Al Shamal | Al Sadd | Stars League | 1-3 |
| 2022-09-06 | Al Sadd | Al Shamal | Stars League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Sadd vs Al Shamal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.8%, draw 19.1%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.75 | 5.35 |
| Bet365 | 1.45 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 4.75 | 5.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 5.01 | 5.23 |
| SBO | 1.40 | 4.22 | 4.60 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .