Al Shamal
vs
Al-Sailiya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Shamal
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.62.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al Shamal is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya
| Probability | Al Shamal | Draw | Al-Sailiya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 20.6% | 24.7% |
| Market | 65.0% | 19.8% | 15.2% |
| Final | 62.5% | 20.0% | 17.5% |
| Edge | -2.6% | +0.2% | +2.4% |
Why Al Shamal
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.62.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.42, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.3% per unit staked (our 62.5% × 1.42 − 1).
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya match preview
Al Shamal is set to face Al-Sailiya in the Stars League, with a probability of 55% for a home win according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with an 8% chance of occurring. The expected goals for Al Shamal stand at 2.42, while Al-Sailiya is at 1.62, indicating a potentially high-scoring match with 77% probability for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, Al Shamal has recorded one win in their last five matches, while Al-Sailiya has struggled with six consecutive losses. Historically, in their last 10 encounters, Al-Sailiya has the upper hand with six wins compared to Al Shamal's two victories and two draws. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.04
Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya attack and defence ratings
Al Shamal
Al-Sailiya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shamal | 62.5% | 1.60 | -2.6% | 1.42 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.3% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Shamal | 62.5% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Al-Sailiya | 17.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.8% |
| No | 26.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Shamal win | 35.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 45.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.3% |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | |
| 2-2 | 6.8% |
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya stats
Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya recent form
| Al Shamal |
LLDLDW |
| Al-Sailiya |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Shamal and Al-Sailiya season so far
Al Shamal record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Sailiya record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Al Shamal | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Al-Sailiya | Al Shamal | Stars League | 1-2 |
| 2023-02-05 | Al Shamal | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 0-5 |
| 2022-08-10 | Al-Sailiya | Al Shamal | Stars League | 2-1 |
| 2022-04-13 | Al Shamal | Al-Sailiya | QFA Cup | 2-3 |
| 2022-01-07 | Al-Sailiya | Al Shamal | Stars League | 0-2 |
| 2021-09-16 | Al Shamal | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 2-3 |
| 2021-04-29 | Al-Sailiya | Al Shamal | QFA Cup | 4-2 |
| 2015-03-06 | Al-Sailiya | Al Shamal | Stars League | 2-1 |
| 2014-10-18 | Al Shamal | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Shamal vs Al-Sailiya odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 65.0%, draw 19.8%, away 15.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 4.70 | 6.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.42 | 4.50 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.42 | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.42 | 4.70 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.35 | 4.70 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.40 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .