Al Ahli Doha
vs
Al-Sailiya
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Ahli Doha
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya
| Probability | Al Ahli Doha | Draw | Al-Sailiya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.7% | 20.9% | 23.4% |
| Market | 59.5% | 21.4% | 19.1% |
| Final | 58.6% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -0.5% | +4.3% |
Why Al Ahli Doha
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.52.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya match preview
Al Ahli Doha faces Al-Sailiya in the Stars League with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a strong probability of victory for Al Ahli Doha at 56%, while Al-Sailiya's chances stand at 23%, with a 21% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Al Ahli Doha will score 2.38 and Al-Sailiya 1.51, highlighting a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Al Ahli Doha with a mixed record of L-W-D-L-W-W, while Al-Sailiya has struggled, losing five consecutive matches before a recent win. In their last ten encounters, Al Ahli Doha has secured five wins, compared to Al-Sailiya's two victories and three draws. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C, based solely on model probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Ahli Doha and Al-Sailiya expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.86
Al Ahli Doha and Al-Sailiya attack and defence ratings
Al Ahli Doha
Al-Sailiya
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Doha | 58.6% | 1.71 | -3.8% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Ahli Doha | 58.6% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Al-Sailiya | 20.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.4% |
| No | 28.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Ahli Doha win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 44.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | |
| 3-1 | 6.9% |
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya stats
Al Ahli Doha and Al-Sailiya recent form
| Al Ahli Doha |
LWDLWW |
| Al-Sailiya |
LLLLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 2-2 |
| 2026-01-19 | Al-Sailiya | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Al-Sailiya | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-29 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 0-4 |
| 2023-01-12 | Al-Sailiya | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-25 | Al-Sailiya | Al Ahli Doha | QSL Cup | 2-3 |
| 2022-03-01 | Al-Sailiya | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 2-2 |
| 2021-12-24 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 1-0 |
| 2021-01-20 | Al-Sailiya | Al Ahli Doha | Stars League | 0-0 |
| 2020-10-18 | Al Ahli Doha | Al-Sailiya | Stars League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Ahli Doha vs Al-Sailiya odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 59.5%, draw 21.4%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.30 | 4.72 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.30 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.45 | 4.99 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .