Garuda Lions
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Stars League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC

1 – 0 Full time

10′Bartolomé Márquez López
12′Eisa Palangi
17′Bruno TabataAkwasi Addai
18′Mohamed MushrinnYaseen Lafrid
45′Joao Pedro
45′Zinedine SassiAyoub Amraoui
56′Akwasi AddaiNasir Baksh
66′Ali SaoudiAnas Hanafy
69′Ismaeel MohammadYounis Hussein Abdelrahman
82′Younis Hussein Abdelrahman
90′Erik ExpósitoMohammed Abdulla Al-Ishaq
90′Mohammed Abdulla Al-Ishaq

Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium, Doha

Al Ahli Doha 43%
Draw 25%
Qatar SC 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

28 Shots 9
12 Shots on target 2
57 Possession % 43
9 Corners 3
8 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 0
2 Saves 11
502 Accurate passes 106

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAl Ahli DohaDrawQatar SC
Model48.8%20.5%30.7%
Market40.4%26.0%33.6%
Final42.5%24.6%32.9%
Edge+8.4%-5.5%-2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Al Ahli Doha

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.43 vs 1.94.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Al Ahli Doha below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Al Ahli Doha ↓ / Qatar SC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 6% 4% 2 4% 7% 7% 5% 3 6% 6% 4% 4+ 6% 6% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Al Ahli Doha and Qatar SC expected goals

Al Ahli Doha 2.43
Qatar SC 1.94

Total expected goals: 4.36

Al Ahli Doha and Qatar SC attack and defence ratings

Al Ahli Doha

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Qatar SC

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC: result vs prediction

Al Ahli Doha 1 – 0 Qatar SC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Stars League

Before and after this match

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Al Ahli Doha 42.5% 2.35 +8.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.1% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 78.6% 1.27 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.2% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Al Ahli Doha42.5%
Draw24.6%
Qatar SC32.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.1%
Under 2.518.9%
Both teams to scoreYes78.6%
No21.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.1%
12 (either side)75.4%
X2 (draw or away)57.5%
Handicap -1Al Ahli Doha win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.3%
Loss51.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-17.3%
2-27.0%
1-16.6%

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC stats

Al Ahli Doha and Qatar SC recent form

newest first
Al Ahli Doha DLWWDW
Qatar SC LDLWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Al Ahli Doha wins 0Draws 6Qatar SC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-31Al Ahli DohaQatar SCStars League1-3
2025-10-19Al Ahli DohaQatar SCQSL Cup1-6
2025-08-30Qatar SCAl Ahli DohaStars League2-0
2025-05-04Al Ahli DohaQatar SCEmir Cup1-0
2025-02-07Al Ahli DohaQatar SCStars League0-3
2024-10-04Qatar SCAl Ahli DohaQSL Cup0-1
2024-09-14Qatar SCAl Ahli DohaStars League0-1
2024-03-12Qatar SCAl Ahli DohaStars League1-3
2023-10-21Al Ahli DohaQatar SCStars League2-4
2023-09-09Qatar SCAl Ahli DohaQSL Cup2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Al Ahli Doha vs Qatar SC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 26.0%, away 33.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.25 3.65 2.70
1xBet 2.23 3.46 2.76
Bet365 2.15 3.60 2.70
BetVictor 2.20 3.60 2.70
Betano 2.30 3.50 2.80
Betfair 2.20 3.60 2.63
Dafabet 2.28 3.50 2.80
Marathonbet 2.21 3.46 2.71
Pinnacle 2.33 3.68 2.87
SBO 2.19 3.32 2.54
Superbet 2.30 3.50 2.80
Unibet 2.33 3.50 2.45
William Hill 2.25 3.30 2.75

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.25 ▲ +0.02
X 3.50 —
2 2.71 ▼ -0.04

8 snapshots recorded, from .