Oţelul
vs
Arges Pitesti
1 – 0 Full time
Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti
| Probability | Oţelul | Draw | Arges Pitesti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 31.4% | 21.8% |
| Market | 36.8% | 33.1% | 30.1% |
| Final | 39.3% | 32.6% | 28.1% |
| Edge | +9.9% | -1.6% | -8.3% |
Why Oţelul
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Oţelul below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Oţelul and Arges Pitesti expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.09
Oţelul and Arges Pitesti attack and defence ratings
Oţelul
Arges Pitesti
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti: result vs prediction
Oţelul 1 – 0 Arges Pitesti
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oţelul | 39.3% | 2.54 | +9.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oţelul | 39.3% |
| Draw | 32.6% | |
| Arges Pitesti | 28.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 67.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oţelul win | 22.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.7% |
| 1-1 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 13.7% |
Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti stats
Oţelul and Arges Pitesti recent form
| Oţelul |
DLDDWW |
| Arges Pitesti |
DWWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Oţelul and Arges Pitesti going into this match
Oţelul record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Arges Pitesti record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-20 | Oţelul | Arges Pitesti | Liga I | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Arges Pitesti | Oţelul | Liga I | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Oţelul vs Arges Pitesti odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.8%, draw 33.1%, away 30.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.35 | 2.84 | 3.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.59 | 2.77 | 3.06 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 2.70 | 3.00 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 2.88 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 2.77 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 2.85 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.60 | 2.77 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.74 | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| SBO | 2.43 | 2.74 | 2.67 |
| Superbet | 2.62 | 2.92 | 3.15 |
| Unibet | 2.40 | 2.80 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.70 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .