Yverdon Sport
vs
FC Aarau
2 – 1 Full time
Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau
| Probability | Yverdon Sport | Draw | FC Aarau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.7% | 19.8% | 19.5% |
| Market | 44.4% | 25.4% | 30.2% |
| Final | 48.4% | 24.0% | 27.5% |
| Edge | +16.4% | -5.6% | -10.7% |
Why Yverdon Sport
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yverdon Sport below the model: +16.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Yverdon Sport and FC Aarau expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
Yverdon Sport and FC Aarau attack and defence ratings
Yverdon Sport
FC Aarau
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau: result vs prediction
Yverdon Sport 2 – 1 FC Aarau
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yverdon Sport | 48.4% | 2.06 | +16.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Yverdon Sport win | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yverdon Sport | 48.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| FC Aarau | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.6% |
| No | 30.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yverdon Sport win | 40.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 39.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 7.9% | |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau stats
Yverdon Sport and FC Aarau recent form
| Yverdon Sport |
WWDDDW |
| FC Aarau |
DWDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yverdon Sport and FC Aarau going into this match
Yverdon Sport record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FC Aarau record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | FC Aarau | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 2-2 |
| 2026-01-30 | Yverdon Sport | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-07 | Yverdon Sport | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-03 | FC Aarau | Yverdon Sport | Challenge League | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Yverdon Sport vs FC Aarau odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 25.5%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.52 | 3.08 |
| 888Sport | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.52 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.10 | 3.80 | 3.22 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.34 | 2.89 |
| Superbet | 2.12 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Unibet | 2.16 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .