FC Aarau
vs
Neuchatel Xamax FC
2 – 1 Full time
FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC
| Probability | FC Aarau | Draw | Neuchatel Xamax FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.2% | 25.5% | 35.3% |
| Market | 46.9% | 25.0% | 28.1% |
| Final | 44.9% | 25.2% | 29.9% |
| Edge | -7.7% | +0.5% | +7.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC attack and defence ratings
FC Aarau
Neuchatel Xamax FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC: result vs prediction
FC Aarau 2 – 1 Neuchatel Xamax FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 44.9% | 2.23 | -7.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Aarau | 44.9% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC | 29.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.6% |
| No | 35.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Aarau win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 60.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC stats
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC recent form
| FC Aarau |
LDWDLL |
| Neuchatel Xamax FC |
LDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Aarau and Neuchatel Xamax FC going into this match
FC Aarau record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Neuchatel Xamax FC record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2026-03-21 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-28 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-11 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-07 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-0 |
| 2024-12-13 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2024-08-03 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 1-3 |
| 2024-04-12 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | FC Aarau | Challenge League | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-01 | FC Aarau | Neuchatel Xamax FC | Challenge League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 25.0%, away 28.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.91 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.65 | 3.28 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.30 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.65 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.01 | 3.75 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.65 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 3.80 | 3.37 |
| SBO | 1.98 | 3.26 | 2.80 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .