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Challenge League · Full time ·Matchday 5

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

1 – 1 Full time

Referee: J. Muller

FC Winterthur 34%
Draw 25%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC WinterthurDrawStade Lausanne-Ouchy
Model27.2%22.5%50.3%
Market36.0%26.0%38.0%
Final33.8%25.1%41.1%
Edge-8.8%-3.6%+12.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Stade Lausanne-Ouchy below the model: +12.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Winterthur ↓ / Stade Lausanne → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 9% 6% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 71%
No goals 3%

FC Winterthur and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected goals

FC Winterthur 1.55
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2.13

Total expected goals: 3.68

FC Winterthur and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack and defence ratings

FC Winterthur

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

Attack 1.45 +45%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy: result vs prediction

FC Winterthur 1 – 1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Challenge League

Before and after this match

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 41.1% 2.44 +12.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 71.2% 1.41 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.3% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.9% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.7% 2.01 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Winterthur33.8%
Draw25.1%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy41.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571.2%
Under 2.528.8%
Both teams to scoreYes70.3%
No29.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)58.9%
12 (either side)74.9%
X2 (draw or away)66.2%
Handicap -1Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win30.5%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss49.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.1%
1-28.9%
2-26.9%

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy stats

FC Winterthur and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy recent form

newest first
FC Winterthur WWWLDL
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy WWWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Winterthur and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Winterthur record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy record

  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FC Winterthur wins 3Draws 3Stade Lausanne-Ouchy wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-02Stade Lausanne-OuchyFC WinterthurSchweizer Cup1-0
2024-04-14Stade Lausanne-OuchyFC WinterthurSuper League0-1
2024-01-27Stade Lausanne-OuchyFC WinterthurSuper League1-3
2023-09-23FC WinterthurStade Lausanne-OuchySuper League2-1
2022-04-02FC WinterthurStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League2-1
2022-03-04Stade Lausanne-OuchyFC WinterthurChallenge League3-1
2021-11-05FC WinterthurStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League0-0
2021-07-23Stade Lausanne-OuchyFC WinterthurChallenge League1-1
2021-04-16FC WinterthurStade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League1-1
2021-02-05Stade Lausanne-OuchyFC WinterthurChallenge League4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Winterthur vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 26.0%, away 38.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.55 2.40
1xBet 2.53 3.35 2.40
Bet365 2.55 3.75 2.40
BetVictor 2.55 3.70 2.40
Betano 2.57 3.50 2.47
Betfair 2.50 3.60 2.30
Dafabet 2.60 3.60 2.48
Marathonbet 2.53 3.35 2.40
Pinnacle 2.65 3.48 2.50
SBO 2.33 3.26 2.29
Superbet 2.57 3.50 2.47
Unibet 2.35 3.45 2.45
William Hill 2.50 3.25 2.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.53 ▼ -0.12
X 3.50 ▲ +0.01
2 2.40 ▲ +0.02

3 snapshots recorded, from .