Garuda Lions
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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX

2 – 3 Full time

Protective StadiumReferee: D. Kulasinac

Birmingham Legion 60%
Draw 21%
Sporting JAX 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBirmingham LegionDrawSporting JAX
Model65.5%19.7%14.8%
Market58.2%21.9%20.0%
Final60.0%21.3%18.7%
Edge+7.3%-2.2%-5.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Birmingham Legion

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.08.
  • The market prices Birmingham Legion below the model: +7.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Birmingham Leg ↓ / Sporting JAX → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 9% 2 9% 10% 5% 3 7% 8% 4+ 7% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 68%
No goals 4%

Birmingham Legion and Sporting JAX expected goals

Birmingham Legion 2.40
Sporting JAX 1.08

Total expected goals: 3.48

Birmingham Legion and Sporting JAX attack and defence ratings

Birmingham Legion

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.05 +5%

Sporting JAX

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.76 +76%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX: result vs prediction

Birmingham Legion 2 – 3 Sporting JAX

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Birmingham Legion 60.0% 1.67 +7.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.4% 1.48 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.3% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Birmingham Legion win 44.3% 2.26 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Birmingham Legion60.0%
Draw21.3%
Sporting JAX18.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.4%
Under 2.532.6%
Both teams to scoreYes60.9%
No39.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.3%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)40.0%
Handicap -1Birmingham Legion win44.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.3%
Loss34.3%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.6%
2-08.9%
1-18.8%

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX stats

Birmingham Legion and Sporting JAX recent form

newest first
Birmingham Legion LWLDLD
Sporting JAX LLLDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Birmingham Legion and Sporting JAX going into this match

league record before kick-off

Birmingham Legion record

  • They have won 3 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.9 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sporting JAX record

  • They have won 2 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Birmingham Legion vs Sporting JAX odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.2%, draw 21.8%, away 19.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.57 4.20 4.50
1xBet 1.54 4.20 4.70
Bet365 1.62 4.10 4.10
BetVictor 1.57 4.20 4.75
Betano 1.60 3.90 4.65
Betfair 1.53 4.20 4.60
Dafabet 1.62 4.30 4.60
Marathonbet 1.52 4.20 4.65
Pinnacle 1.60 4.57 4.76
Superbet 1.61 4.10 4.40
Unibet 1.58 3.95 4.35
William Hill 1.55 4.00 4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.58 ▲ +0.01
X 4.20 ▲ +0.05
2 4.60 —

2 snapshots recorded, from .