Hartford Athletic
vs
Birmingham Legion
3 – 2 Full time
Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion
| Probability | Hartford Athletic | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.0% | 33.7% | 29.3% |
| Market | 47.0% | 26.2% | 26.9% |
| Final | 44.5% | 28.0% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -10.0% | +7.6% | +2.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hartford Athletic and Birmingham Legion expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.97
Hartford Athletic and Birmingham Legion attack and defence ratings
Hartford Athletic
Birmingham Legion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion: result vs prediction
Hartford Athletic 3 – 2 Birmingham Legion
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 44.5% | 2.25 | -10.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hartford Athletic | 44.5% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Birmingham Legion | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.4% |
| No | 59.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hartford Athletic win | 15.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 63.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.3% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.4% |
Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion stats
Hartford Athletic and Birmingham Legion recent form
| Hartford Athletic |
WDLDLD |
| Birmingham Legion |
LLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hartford Athletic and Birmingham Legion going into this match
Hartford Athletic record
- They have won 7 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 21 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion record
- They have won 3 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.9 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Birmingham Legion | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-10 | Birmingham Legion | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-4 |
| 2025-04-19 | Hartford Athletic | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 26.2%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.50 | 3.42 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.99 | 3.55 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.36 |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.74 | 3.49 |
| Superbet | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Unibet | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.05 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .