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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion

2 – 2 Full time

20′J. Hafferty
32′R. Williams
40′T. Pasher
52′J. O'BrienL. Mesanvi
66′R. WilliamsR. Damus
66′R. Williams
67′S. TregarthenD. McCartney
67′T. PasherS. Ngoma
76′A. MitranoC. Sharp
76′E. KizzaD. Sing
77′P. CraigM. Rasheed
77′H. DiopPaterson AJ
85′G. DiarbianA. Daley
87′K. Cole
90′D. Sing

Michael A. Carroll StadiumReferee: A. Yaya

Indy Eleven 51%
Draw 25%
Birmingham Legion 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndy ElevenDrawBirmingham Legion
Model46.4%27.4%26.2%
Market51.9%24.0%24.1%
Final50.5%24.8%24.6%
Edge-5.5%+3.4%+2.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Indy Eleven

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Indy Eleven ↓ / Birmingham Leg → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 9% 13% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Indy Eleven and Birmingham Legion expected goals

Indy Eleven 1.58
Birmingham Legion 1.13

Total expected goals: 2.71

Indy Eleven and Birmingham Legion attack and defence ratings

Indy Eleven

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Birmingham Legion

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion: result vs prediction

Indy Eleven 2 – 2 Birmingham Legion

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Indy Eleven 50.5% 1.98 -5.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.9% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.4% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.6% 1.86 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Indy Eleven50.5%
Draw24.8%
Birmingham Legion24.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
Both teams to scoreYes55.0%
No45.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.4%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)49.5%
Handicap -1Indy Eleven win24.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss53.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
2-19.4%
1-09.3%

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion stats

Indy Eleven and Birmingham Legion recent form

newest first
Indy Eleven LWWDLL
Birmingham Legion LLLWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Indy Eleven and Birmingham Legion going into this match

league record before kick-off

Indy Eleven record

  • They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Birmingham Legion record

  • They have won 3 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 0.9 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 20 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Indy Eleven wins 2Draws 2Birmingham Legion wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-19Birmingham LegionIndy ElevenUSL Championship2-2
2025-09-21Indy ElevenBirmingham LegionUSL Championship2-1
2025-06-28Indy ElevenBirmingham LegionUSL League One Cup1-1
2025-06-05Birmingham LegionIndy ElevenUSL Championship0-1
2024-10-19Indy ElevenBirmingham LegionUSL Championship3-2
2024-06-09Birmingham LegionIndy ElevenUSL Championship0-1
2023-08-09Indy ElevenBirmingham LegionUSL Championship4-0
2023-06-17Birmingham LegionIndy ElevenUSL Championship2-1
2022-10-13Birmingham LegionIndy ElevenUSL Championship3-1
2022-09-10Indy ElevenBirmingham LegionUSL Championship4-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Indy Eleven vs Birmingham Legion odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.0%, draw 24.0%, away 24.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.75 3.78 3.80
Bet365 1.73 3.80 3.60
BetVictor 1.75 4.00 3.80
Betano 1.72 3.75 3.90
Betfair 1.73 3.80 4.00
Dafabet 1.79 3.80 4.10
Marathonbet 1.73 3.78 3.74
Pinnacle 1.80 4.11 3.94
Unibet 1.75 3.60 3.70
William Hill 1.75 3.60 3.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.75 ▲ +0.04
X 3.79 ▼ -0.05
2 3.77 ▼ -0.23

10 snapshots recorded, from .