Indy Eleven
vs
Louisville City
2 – 1 Full time
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Indy Eleven vs Louisville City
| Probability | Indy Eleven | Draw | Louisville City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.7% | 27.1% | 31.2% |
| Market | 29.1% | 24.7% | 46.2% |
| Final | 32.2% | 25.3% | 42.5% |
| Edge | +12.7% | +2.3% | -15.0% |
Why Louisville City
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Indy Eleven and Louisville City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.87
Indy Eleven and Louisville City attack and defence ratings
Indy Eleven
Louisville City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City: result vs prediction
Indy Eleven 2 – 1 Louisville City
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 42.5% | 2.35 | -15.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Indy Eleven | 32.2% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| Louisville City | 42.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 14.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.0% | |
| Loss | 68.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | |
| 1-0 | 7.7% |
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City stats
Indy Eleven and Louisville City recent form
| Indy Eleven |
WDLLLL |
| Louisville City |
WDLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Indy Eleven and Louisville City going into this match
Indy Eleven record
- They have won 8 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Louisville City | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Indy Eleven | Louisville City | USL Championship | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.2%, draw 24.9%, away 45.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.00 |
| 1xBet | 3.16 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
| Bet365 | 3.40 | 3.60 | 1.90 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.70 | 1.98 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.60 | 1.95 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.75 | 2.01 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.70 | 1.93 |
| Pinnacle | 3.26 | 4.07 | 2.01 |
| Superbet | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.00 |
| Unibet | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.70 | 1.91 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .