Lexington
vs
Las Vegas Lights
2 – 0 Full time
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights
| Probability | Lexington | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 30.2% | 27.2% |
| Market | 55.3% | 24.1% | 20.6% |
| Final | 52.1% | 25.6% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -12.6% | +6.0% | +6.6% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 1.02.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lexington and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Lexington and Las Vegas Lights attack and defence ratings
Lexington
Las Vegas Lights
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights: result vs prediction
Lexington 2 – 0 Las Vegas Lights
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 52.1% | 1.92 | -12.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 52.1% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.2% |
| No | 51.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 20.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 0-0 | 10.9% |
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights stats
Lexington and Las Vegas Lights recent form
| Lexington |
LWWDWL |
| Las Vegas Lights |
WWDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lexington and Las Vegas Lights going into this match
Lexington record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Vegas Lights record
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Las Vegas Lights | Lexington | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Las Vegas Lights | Lexington | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Lexington | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lexington vs Las Vegas Lights odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 24.1%, away 20.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.64 | 3.74 | 4.51 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.62 | 3.74 | 4.45 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.95 | 4.62 |
| Superbet | 1.66 | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| Unibet | 1.57 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .