New Mexico United
vs
Lexington
2 – 1 Full time
New Mexico United vs Lexington overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Lexington
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Lexington |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.2% | 30.0% | 21.8% |
| Market | 35.6% | 27.4% | 37.0% |
| Final | 38.8% | 28.1% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +12.6% | +2.5% | -15.1% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +12.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New Mexico United and Lexington expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
New Mexico United and Lexington attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Lexington
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New Mexico United vs Lexington: result vs prediction
New Mexico United 2 – 1 Lexington
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Lexington markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 38.8% | 2.58 | +12.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 38.8% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Lexington | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.4% |
| No | 55.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 51.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
New Mexico United vs Lexington stats
New Mexico United and Lexington recent form
| New Mexico United |
DWWWWW |
| Lexington |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Lexington going into this match
New Mexico United record
- They have won 12 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington record
- They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United vs Lexington head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Lexington | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-4 |
| 2025-09-28 | New Mexico United | Lexington | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Lexington | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Lexington odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 27.4%, away 37.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.22 | 2.46 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.25 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.35 | 2.50 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.22 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.67 | 3.43 | 2.60 |
| Superbet | 2.62 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Unibet | 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .