New Mexico United
vs
San Antonio
1 – 2 Full time
New Mexico United vs San Antonio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs San Antonio
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | San Antonio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.8% | 23.7% | 12.6% |
| Market | 44.7% | 26.2% | 29.1% |
| Final | 49.4% | 25.6% | 25.0% |
| Edge | +19.1% | -2.6% | -16.5% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +19.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New Mexico United and San Antonio expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
New Mexico United and San Antonio attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
San Antonio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New Mexico United vs San Antonio: result vs prediction
New Mexico United 1 – 2 San Antonio
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs San Antonio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 49.4% | 2.02 | +19.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 39.0% | 2.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 49.4% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| San Antonio | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 39.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-1 | 11.1% |
New Mexico United vs San Antonio stats
New Mexico United and San Antonio recent form
| New Mexico United |
WDWWWW |
| San Antonio |
LLDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and San Antonio going into this match
New Mexico United record
- They have won 12 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Antonio record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 23 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United vs San Antonio head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-07 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-22 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs San Antonio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 26.2%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 3.44 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.02 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Unibet | 2.15 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .