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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United

1 – 2 Full time

29′O. Anderson
34′G. Hurst
44′L. Archimede
65′L. ArchimedeG. Zelalem
65′N. Reid-StephenC. Nava
65′D. HarrisJ. Melto Quiah
66′C. LockerA. Okyere
66′O. AndersonM. Arteaga
79′K. Keller
82′M. YbarraP. Leal
85′Z. Bailey
87′K. Shakes
88′N. HamalainenJ. LaCava
89′Z. BaileyM. Howell
90′J. Rodriguez
90′T. Blackett
90′A. GuillenB. Ofeimu
90′N. SessockB. Pope

Cashman FieldReferee: M. Kaleia

Las Vegas Lights 41%
Draw 27%
New Mexico United 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLas Vegas LightsDrawNew Mexico United
Model24.4%32.3%43.3%
Market46.4%25.2%28.4%
Final40.9%26.9%32.1%
Edge-22.0%+7.1%+14.9%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Las Vegas Ligh ↓ / New Mexico Uni → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 14% 9% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 62%
3+ goals 34%
No goals 14%

Las Vegas Lights and New Mexico United expected goals

Las Vegas Lights 0.85
New Mexico United 1.21

Total expected goals: 2.06

Las Vegas Lights and New Mexico United attack and defence ratings

Las Vegas Lights

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 0.89 -11%

New Mexico United

Attack 1.16 +16%
Defence 0.72 -28%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United: result vs prediction

Las Vegas Lights 1 – 2 New Mexico United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Las Vegas Lights 40.9% 2.44 -22.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.1% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score No 58.6% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.1% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 75.6% 1.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Las Vegas Lights40.9%
Draw26.9%
New Mexico United32.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.9%
Under 2.566.1%
Both teams to scoreYes41.4%
No58.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.9%
12 (either side)73.1%
X2 (draw or away)59.1%
Handicap -1Las Vegas Lights win8.4%
Push (exactly one goal)16.1%
Loss75.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.4%
0-114.2%
0-014.1%

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United stats

Las Vegas Lights and New Mexico United recent form

newest first
Las Vegas Lights LLWWDD
New Mexico United LWDWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Las Vegas Lights and New Mexico United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Las Vegas Lights record

  • They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

New Mexico United record

  • They have won 12 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 21 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 21 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Las Vegas Lights wins 4Draws 4New Mexico United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-10New Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship3-1
2025-08-17New Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship2-2
2025-03-16Las Vegas LightsNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship2-3
2024-11-10New Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship0-1
2024-08-01New Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship1-2
2024-05-05Las Vegas LightsNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship1-2
2023-08-31New Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship3-3
2023-07-05Las Vegas LightsNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship2-2
2022-10-01Las Vegas LightsNew Mexico UnitedUSL Championship0-0
2022-03-13New Mexico UnitedLas Vegas LightsUSL Championship2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Las Vegas Lights vs New Mexico United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 26.0%, away 29.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.20 3.40 2.85
1xBet 1.97 3.60 3.18
Bet365 1.95 3.60 3.20
BetVictor 1.95 3.70 3.25
Betano 2.25 3.25 2.87
Betfair 2.15 3.40 2.90
Dafabet 2.26 3.40 3.00
Marathonbet 1.95 3.60 3.12
Pinnacle 2.03 3.93 3.30
Unibet 2.12 3.35 2.88
William Hill 1.95 3.50 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▼ -0.26
X 3.60 ▲ +0.30
2 3.19 ▲ +0.29

8 snapshots recorded, from .