Monterey Bay
vs
Las Vegas Lights
Garuda Lions Prediction: Las Vegas Lights
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Las Vegas Lights is the favourite, not a value bet.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights
| Probability | Monterey Bay | Draw | Las Vegas Lights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35.2% | 25.5% | 39.3% |
| Market | 36.9% | 25.1% | 38.0% |
| Final | 36.5% | 25.2% | 38.3% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +0.1% | +0.3% |
Why Las Vegas Lights
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 38.3% × 2.48 − 1).
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights match preview
Monterey Bay faces Las Vegas Lights in a matchup where the model gives Monterey Bay a 35% chance of winning, while Las Vegas Lights are favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.56 for Monterey Bay and 1.65 for Las Vegas Lights. Both teams have shown a propensity for scoring, with the model indicating a 65% likelihood that both teams will find the net and a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored.
In terms of recent form, Monterey Bay has struggled with two losses and one draw in their last five matches, while Las Vegas Lights have fared slightly better with two wins and one draw in the same span. Historically, Las Vegas Lights have the upper hand in their last three encounters, boasting two wins and one draw against Monterey Bay.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights attack and defence ratings
Monterey Bay
Las Vegas Lights
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Hartford Athletic vs Rhode Island
- Louisville City v Detroit City — match page
- Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Sporting JAX
- San Antonio vs Orange County SC
- Colorado Springs v FC Tulsa — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United — team news & stats
- Phoenix Rising v Lexington — match page
- Sacramento Republic vs Oakland Roots — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Las Vegas Lights | 38.3% | 2.61 | +0.3% | 2.48 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterey Bay | 36.5% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Las Vegas Lights | 38.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.8% |
| No | 35.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Las Vegas Lights win | 20.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights stats
Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights recent form
| Monterey Bay |
LLWLLD |
| Las Vegas Lights |
LLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterey Bay and Las Vegas Lights season so far
Monterey Bay record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Las Vegas Lights record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Monterey Bay | Las Vegas Lights | USL League One Cup | 2-3 |
| 2026-03-29 | Las Vegas Lights | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Monterey Bay | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-15 | Las Vegas Lights | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-15 | Las Vegas Lights | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | Monterey Bay | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Monterey Bay | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2023-06-11 | Las Vegas Lights | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-28 | Las Vegas Lights | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 4-0 |
| 2022-05-08 | Monterey Bay | Las Vegas Lights | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterey Bay vs Las Vegas Lights odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.9%, draw 25.1%, away 38.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.58 | 2.35 |
| Bet365 | 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.37 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.47 |
| Marathonbet | 2.42 | 3.58 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.49 | 3.77 | 2.48 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .