Monterey Bay
vs
Colorado Springs
Garuda Lions Prediction: Colorado Springs
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs
| Probability | Monterey Bay | Draw | Colorado Springs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 28.9% | 42.7% |
| Market | 20.5% | 23.7% | 55.8% |
| Final | 22.5% | 25.0% | 52.5% |
| Edge | +7.9% | +5.2% | -13.1% |
Why Colorado Springs
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.12.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs match preview
Monterey Bay faces Colorado Springs in the USL Championship with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the match outcome suggest a 28% chance for Monterey Bay to win, a 29% likelihood of a draw, and a 43% probability favoring Colorado Springs. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with expected goals of 1.12 for Monterey Bay and 1.42 for Colorado Springs.
Recent form shows Monterey Bay with a record of L-W-L-L-D-D, while Colorado Springs has managed D-D-D-D-W-W in their last six matches. In their last three encounters, Monterey Bay has secured 1 win, while Colorado Springs has won 2 times. The model indicates a 47% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 52% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs attack and defence ratings
Monterey Bay
Colorado Springs
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- FC Tulsa vs Oakland Roots
- San Antonio v New Mexico United — match page
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic — team news & stats
- Orange County SC vs Phoenix Rising
- Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colorado Springs | 52.5% | 1.90 | -13.1% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monterey Bay | 22.5% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Colorado Springs | 52.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.3% |
| No | 47.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Colorado Springs win | 21.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 10.0% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs stats
Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs recent form
| Monterey Bay |
LWLLDD |
| Colorado Springs |
DDDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monterey Bay and Colorado Springs season so far
Monterey Bay record
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colorado Springs record
- They have won 11 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Colorado Springs | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Colorado Springs | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Monterey Bay | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-20 | Monterey Bay | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-06-30 | Colorado Springs | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-08-27 | Monterey Bay | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-07-05 | Colorado Springs | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 4-0 |
| 2022-05-29 | Monterey Bay | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 4-2 |
| 2022-03-20 | Colorado Springs | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monterey Bay vs Colorado Springs odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.1%, draw 24.1%, away 54.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.44 | 3.85 | 1.61 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
| BetVictor | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.80 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| Marathonbet | 4.35 | 3.85 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 4.75 | 4.23 | 1.63 |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .