New Mexico United
vs
Monterey Bay
Garuda Lions Prediction: New Mexico United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.6% | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| Market | 57.4% | 22.2% | 20.4% |
| Final | 58.7% | 21.9% | 19.4% |
| Edge | +5.2% | -1.3% | -3.9% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.11.
- The market prices New Mexico United below the model: +5.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay match preview
New Mexico United is favored in their upcoming match against Monterey Bay, with a 61% probability of winning compared to Monterey Bay's 17%. The expected goals for New Mexico United stand at 2.20, while Monterey Bay's is significantly lower at 1.12. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of New Mexico United, with a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, New Mexico United has recorded two losses, followed by three draws and a win, while Monterey Bay has had a mixed run with one win, three losses, and two draws. Historically, New Mexico United has performed well against Monterey Bay, with two wins and one draw in their last three encounters. The probabilities indicate a strong expectation for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.37
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Monterey Bay
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 58.7% | 1.70 | +5.2% | 1.63 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 58.7% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Monterey Bay | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.8% |
| No | 39.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 40.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 37.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay stats
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay recent form
| New Mexico United |
WLLDDD |
| Monterey Bay |
WLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay season so far
New Mexico United record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-5 |
| 2025-09-21 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-24 | New Mexico United | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.4%, draw 22.2%, away 20.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.43 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.10 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 4.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.34 | 4.61 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .