USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
New Mexico United
vs
Monterey Bay
3 – 1 Full time
| 18′ | C. Dennis | ||
| 29′ | C. Dennis | ||
| 31′ | D. Sanchez | ||
| 46′ | K. EgwuR. Nakamura | ||
| 56′ | G. Hurst | ||
| 58′ | S. Lletget | ||
| 59′ | Z. Farnsworth | ||
| 61′ | S. Ritchie | ||
| 61′ | V. NoelC. Wilkerson | ||
| 63′ | N. RossJacob Montes | ||
| 65′ | K. Keller | ||
| 70′ | C. DennisJ. Melto Quiah | ||
| 70′ | G. HurstJ. Rennicks | ||
| 75′ | F. BarajasF. Canete | ||
| 75′ | I. PaulD. Otoya | ||
| 80′ | N. Reid-StephenC. Nava | ||
| 80′ | C. GlosterJ. LaCava | ||
| 83′ | J. GarciaE. Blancas | ||
| 90′ | R. Nakamura |
New Mexico United
58%
Draw
22%
Monterey Bay
20%
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Monterey Bay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.7% | 20.9% | 16.5% |
| Market | 56.9% | 22.2% | 20.9% |
| Final | 58.3% | 21.9% | 19.8% |
| Edge | +1.4% | -0.3% | -1.1% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.26 vs 1.11.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
66%
No goals
4%
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay expected goals
New Mexico United
2.26
Monterey Bay
1.11
Total expected goals: 3.38
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Attack
1.21 +21%
Defence
1.04 +4%
Monterey Bay
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay: result vs prediction
New Mexico United 3 – 1 Monterey Bay
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 58.3% | 1.71 | +1.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 58.3% |
| Draw | 21.9% | |
| Monterey Bay | 19.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 40.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 37.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay stats
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay recent form
| New Mexico United |
WLLDDD |
| Monterey Bay |
WLLDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Monterey Bay going into this match
New Mexico United record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monterey Bay record
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
5New Mexico United wins
2Draws
2Monterey Bay wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-5 |
| 2025-09-21 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-24 | New Mexico United | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-18 | New Mexico United | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2024-06-02 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-05-14 | New Mexico United | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-09 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 4-2 |
| 2022-08-21 | New Mexico United | Monterey Bay | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-07-03 | Monterey Bay | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.9%, draw 22.2%, away 20.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.43 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 4.10 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 4.05 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.66 | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 4.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.30 | 4.38 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.60 ▼ -0.07
X
4.10 —
2
4.35 ▲ +0.15
12 snapshots recorded, from .