San Antonio
vs
New Mexico United
Garuda Lions Prediction: San Antonio
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
San Antonio vs New Mexico United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: San Antonio vs New Mexico United
| Probability | San Antonio | Draw | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.3% | 34.6% | 38.1% |
| Market | 48.1% | 25.5% | 26.5% |
| Final | 42.9% | 27.8% | 29.4% |
| Edge | -20.8% | +9.1% | +11.6% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.93, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United match preview
San Antonio hosts New Mexico United in a USL Championship clash, with the match expected to be closely contested. According to our model, San Antonio has a 42% chance of winning, while New Mexico United sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of San Antonio, with a 12% probability. Expected goals suggest a slight edge for New Mexico United at 1.03 compared to San Antonio's 0.83.
In terms of recent form, San Antonio has struggled with a record of D-L-D-D-L-D, while New Mexico United has shown better results with W-W-L-L-D-D. The head-to-head record favors New Mexico United, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters, compared to San Antonio's 2 victories. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
San Antonio and New Mexico United expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.86
San Antonio and New Mexico United attack and defence ratings
San Antonio
New Mexico United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
San Antonio vs New Mexico United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Antonio | 42.9% | 2.33 | -20.8% | 1.93 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | San Antonio | 42.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| New Mexico United | 29.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 71.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.7% |
| No | 62.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | San Antonio win | 9.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.9% | |
| Loss | 72.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.8% |
| 0-1 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.6% |
San Antonio vs New Mexico United stats
San Antonio and New Mexico United recent form
| San Antonio |
DLDDLD |
| New Mexico United |
WWLLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
San Antonio and New Mexico United season so far
San Antonio record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 28 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United record
- They have won 14 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2026-03-22 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-09-07 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-27 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-06-22 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 4-2 |
| 2024-06-30 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2024-05-26 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-08-13 | New Mexico United | San Antonio | USL Championship | 0-3 |
| 2023-05-28 | San Antonio | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
San Antonio vs New Mexico United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.4%, draw 25.4%, away 26.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.88 | 3.58 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.75 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.96 | 3.47 |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .