El Paso Locomotive
vs
New Mexico United
Garuda Lions Prediction: El Paso Locomotive
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — El Paso Locomotive is the favourite, not a value bet.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United
| Probability | El Paso Locomotive | Draw | New Mexico United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.2% | 26.7% | 24.2% |
| Market | 53.1% | 24.0% | 22.8% |
| Final | 52.1% | 24.7% | 23.2% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.7% | +0.3% |
Why El Paso Locomotive
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.8% per unit staked (our 52.1% × 1.75 − 1).
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United match preview
El Paso Locomotive enters this match with a 53% probability of winning against New Mexico United, who have a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of El Paso, which reflects their recent form of L-W-L-D-W-W. New Mexico United's recent performance has been mixed, with a record of L-W-W-L-L-D.
In terms of expected goals, El Paso Locomotive is forecasted to score 1.66, while New Mexico United is projected at 1.10. Additionally, there is a 52% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows El Paso with 2 wins, 2 draws, and New Mexico with 1 win in their last five encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.76
El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United attack and defence ratings
El Paso Locomotive
New Mexico United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 52.1% | 1.92 | -1.0% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | El Paso Locomotive | 52.1% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| New Mexico United | 23.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | El Paso Locomotive win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 50.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 9.3% |
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United stats
El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United recent form
| El Paso Locomotive |
LWLDWW |
| New Mexico United |
LWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
El Paso Locomotive and New Mexico United season so far
El Paso Locomotive record
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
New Mexico United record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | El Paso Locomotive | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup | 0-2 |
| 2026-05-07 | New Mexico United | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2026-04-02 | New Mexico United | El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup | 0-4 |
| 2026-02-28 | El Paso Locomotive | New Mexico United | Friendlies Clubs | 4-1 |
| 2025-05-04 | El Paso Locomotive | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-17 | New Mexico United | El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-22 | New Mexico United | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | New Mexico United | El Paso Locomotive | Friendlies Clubs | 2-2 |
| 2024-07-28 | El Paso Locomotive | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-07 | New Mexico United | El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.1%, draw 24.0%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.69 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.67 | 3.80 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.89 | 4.10 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .