New Mexico United
vs
Phoenix Rising
Garuda Lions Prediction: New Mexico United
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.40.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — New Mexico United is the favourite, not a value bet.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising overview
Garuda Lions analysis: New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
| Probability | New Mexico United | Draw | Phoenix Rising |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 23.1% | 25.0% |
| Market | 47.0% | 25.0% | 28.0% |
| Final | 48.2% | 24.5% | 27.3% |
| Edge | +1.2% | -0.5% | -0.7% |
Why New Mexico United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 48.2% × 2.00 − 1).
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising match preview
New Mexico United enters this match with a 52% probability of winning against Phoenix Rising, who have a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of New Mexico United, with a 9% probability. Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with an expected goals tally of 2.06 for New Mexico United and 1.40 for Phoenix Rising. Additionally, there is a 67% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, New Mexico United has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while Phoenix Rising has two wins, three losses, and one draw in the same timeframe. Historically, New Mexico United has had the upper hand in their last ten encounters, securing six wins compared to Phoenix Rising's three. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.46
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising attack and defence ratings
New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 48.2% | 2.07 | +1.2% | 2.00 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | New Mexico United | 48.2% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Phoenix Rising | 27.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.7% |
| No | 33.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | New Mexico United win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 6.7% |
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising stats
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising recent form
| New Mexico United |
WLWWLL |
| Phoenix Rising |
DWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
New Mexico United and Phoenix Rising season so far
New Mexico United record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Phoenix Rising record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2026-06-07 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL League One Cup | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL League One Cup | 3-3 |
| 2025-05-11 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-04 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-10-10 | New Mexico United | Phoenix Rising | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-31 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Phoenix Rising | New Mexico United | USL Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 25.0%, away 28.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.55 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| Betano | 1.95 | 3.55 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.80 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.85 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.22 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.73 | 3.43 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .