Lexington
vs
Colorado Springs
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lexington
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lexington is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lexington vs Colorado Springs
| Probability | Lexington | Draw | Colorado Springs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 25.7% | 24.0% |
| Market | 46.0% | 26.1% | 27.9% |
| Final | 47.1% | 26.0% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +1.1% | -0.1% | -1.0% |
Why Lexington
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 47.1% × 2.05 − 1).
Lexington vs Colorado Springs match preview
Lexington hosts Colorado Springs in an intriguing USL Championship clash. According to our model, Lexington holds a 50% probability of winning, while Colorado Springs has a 24% chance, with a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Lexington stand at 1.76 compared to Colorado Springs' 1.16, suggesting a potential edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Lexington, occurring with a 10% probability.
Recent form indicates Lexington is on a positive trajectory with three wins in their last six matches, while Colorado Springs has managed only one win in the same period, with three draws. In their last four encounters, Lexington has secured one win, while Colorado Springs has two victories and one draw, showcasing a competitive rivalry. The model indicates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lexington and Colorado Springs expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Lexington and Colorado Springs attack and defence ratings
Lexington
Colorado Springs
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
- Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds — team news & stats
- Charleston Battery vs Rhode Island
- Tampa Bay Rowdies v Miami FC — match page
- Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic — team news & stats
- El Paso Locomotive vs San Antonio
- New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising — team news & stats
- Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa
Before and after this match
Lexington vs Colorado Springs markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 47.1% | 2.12 | +1.1% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lexington | 47.1% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Colorado Springs | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lexington win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
Lexington vs Colorado Springs stats
Lexington and Colorado Springs recent form
| Lexington |
DWDWWW |
| Colorado Springs |
WWDDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lexington and Colorado Springs season so far
Lexington record
- They have won 14 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colorado Springs record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Lexington | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Colorado Springs | Lexington | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Colorado Springs | Lexington | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-06-20 | Lexington | Colorado Springs | USL Championship | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lexington vs Colorado Springs odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.0%, draw 26.1%, away 27.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.40 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.45 | 3.25 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.94 | 3.40 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.53 | 3.44 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .