Detroit City
vs
Hartford Athletic
Garuda Lions Prediction: Detroit City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.65.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Detroit City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic
| Probability | Detroit City | Draw | Hartford Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.1% | 36.6% | 22.4% |
| Market | 50.0% | 27.7% | 22.3% |
| Final | 47.7% | 29.9% | 22.3% |
| Edge | -2.2% | +2.2% | +0.0% |
Why Detroit City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.99 vs 0.65.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.8% per unit staked (our 47.7% × 1.89 − 1).
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic match preview
Detroit City hosts Hartford Athletic in this USL Championship match with a 48% probability of victory for the home side, while the visitors have a 22% chance of winning. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Detroit City, with an 18% likelihood. Both teams are expected to have limited scoring opportunities, as the expected goals are 0.99 for Detroit City and 0.65 for Hartford Athletic.
Recent form shows Detroit City with two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while Hartford Athletic has recorded one win and two draws in the same period. In their last ten encounters, Detroit City has secured two wins, while Hartford Athletic has three victories, with five matches ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Detroit City and Hartford Athletic expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.64
Detroit City and Hartford Athletic attack and defence ratings
Detroit City
Hartford Athletic
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Detroit City | 47.7% | 2.09 | -2.2% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.6% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Detroit City | 47.7% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Hartford Athletic | 22.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.4% |
| No | 68.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Detroit City win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.7% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.6% |
| 1-0 | 17.9% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic stats
Detroit City and Hartford Athletic recent form
| Detroit City |
DLWWWD |
| Hartford Athletic |
WLDLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Detroit City and Hartford Athletic season so far
Detroit City record
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Hartford Athletic record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Detroit City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hartford Athletic | Detroit City | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Detroit City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-28 | Hartford Athletic | Detroit City | USL League One Cup | 2-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Hartford Athletic | Detroit City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Detroit City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-07-31 | Hartford Athletic | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-23 | Detroit City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-14 | Hartford Athletic | Detroit City | USL Championship | 1-3 |
| 2022-07-06 | Detroit City | Hartford Athletic | USL Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Detroit City vs Hartford Athletic odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.0%, draw 27.7%, away 22.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.28 | 4.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.35 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.75 | 3.28 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.34 | 4.24 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .