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USL Championship · ·Round of 16

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa

Garuda Lions Prediction: Sacramento Republic

1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.77.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sacramento Republic is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Sacramento Republic

Heart Health ParkReferee: E. Koroleva

Sacramento Republic 58%
Draw 25%
FC Tulsa 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Sacramento Republic wins
58%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
90%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
44%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
14% of simulated outcomes

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySacramento RepublicDrawFC Tulsa
Model56.4%27.1%16.6%
Market59.0%24.2%16.8%
Final58.3%24.9%16.7%
Edge-0.7%+0.7%-0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Sacramento Republic

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.59, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (our 58.3% × 1.59 − 1).

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa match preview

Sacramento Republic enters the match against FC Tulsa with a 56% probability of winning, while FC Tulsa has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Sacramento Republic, occurring 14% of the time according to our model. Sacramento Republic has shown strong recent form with three wins in their last five matches, while FC Tulsa has struggled, recording two losses and only one win in their last five.

In terms of expected goals, Sacramento Republic is projected to score 1.61, compared to FC Tulsa's 0.77. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 43%, and both teams scoring is at 44%. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Sacramento Republic has secured two wins, while FC Tulsa has won three times, with five matches ending in draws.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Sacramento Rep ↓ / FC Tulsa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 1 14% 13% 2 12% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa expected goals

Sacramento Republic 1.61
FC Tulsa 0.77

Total expected goals: 2.38

Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa attack and defence ratings

Sacramento Republic

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 0.80 -20%

FC Tulsa

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Round of 16 fixtures

USL Championship

Before and after this match

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Sacramento Republic 58.3% 1.71 -0.7% 1.59
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.5% 1.74 — —
Both teams to score No 55.9% 1.79 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.3% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.6% 2.29 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Sacramento Republic58.3%
Draw24.9%
FC Tulsa16.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.5%
Under 2.557.5%
Both teams to scoreYes44.1%
No55.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.3%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)41.7%
Handicap -1Sacramento Republic win31.2%
Push (exactly one goal)25.1%
Loss43.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-013.8%
1-112.6%
2-012.0%
Compare prices for this pick

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa stats

Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa recent form

newest first
Sacramento Republic WWDDWW
FC Tulsa LLDDWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Sacramento Republic and FC Tulsa season so far

league record

Sacramento Republic record

  • They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

FC Tulsa record

  • They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Sacramento Republic wins 5Draws 3FC Tulsa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-10-04FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-1
2026-08-06FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-0
2026-03-08Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship2-0
2025-06-08Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship0-1
2025-03-29FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-0
2024-06-23FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship0-0
2024-04-14Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship1-1
2023-04-29FC TulsaSacramento RepublicUSL Championship1-1
2022-03-27Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship2-1
2020-03-08Sacramento RepublicFC TulsaUSL Championship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Sacramento Republic vs FC Tulsa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.0%, draw 24.2%, away 16.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.53 3.70 5.51
Bet365 1.53 4.00 5.50
Betano 1.57 3.75 5.10
Betfair 1.53 3.80 5.50
Dafabet 1.59 3.80 5.40
Marathonbet 1.51 3.70 5.40
Pinnacle 1.57 3.89 5.54
William Hill 1.57 3.60 5.00
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 ▼ -0.05
X 3.77 ▲ +0.13
2 5.45 ▲ +0.55

7 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Sacramento Republic Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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