Louisville City
vs
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Garuda Lions Prediction: Louisville City
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.84.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Louisville City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
| Probability | Louisville City | Draw | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.8% | 30.8% | 22.3% |
| Market | 54.7% | 26.1% | 19.2% |
| Final | 52.7% | 27.3% | 20.0% |
| Edge | -2.0% | +1.2% | +0.8% |
Why Louisville City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.3% per unit staked (our 52.7% × 1.72 − 1).
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds match preview
Louisville City enters the match against Pittsburgh Riverhounds with a 53% probability of winning, while the Riverhounds have a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Louisville City, with an expected goals tally of 1.32 for Louisville and 0.84 for Pittsburgh. Both teams have shown competitive form recently, with Louisville City recording a sequence of results including three wins and two draws, while Pittsburgh has alternated between wins and losses.
Historically, the last ten encounters between these two teams have been closely contested, with Louisville City securing three wins, Pittsburgh Riverhounds also with three wins, and four matches ending in draws. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 37%, and both teams to score is at 43%, indicating a potentially tight matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.16
Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack and defence ratings
Louisville City
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 52.7% | 1.90 | -2.0% | 1.72 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Louisville City | 52.7% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.9% |
| No | 57.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Louisville City win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 1-0 | 14.0% | |
| 0-0 | 12.8% |
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds stats
Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds recent form
| Louisville City |
DWWWDW |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
WDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Louisville City and Pittsburgh Riverhounds season so far
Louisville City record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Pittsburgh Riverhounds record
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Louisville City | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-05-10 | Louisville City | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-19 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-23 | Louisville City | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-07-13 | Louisville City | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-07-01 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-04 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Louisville City | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-30 | Louisville City | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Louisville City vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.7%, draw 26.1%, away 19.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.67 | 3.42 | 4.66 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.35 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.65 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.65 | 3.42 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.63 | 5.13 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.30 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .