Pittsburgh Riverhounds
vs
Birmingham Legion
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pittsburgh Riverhounds
1 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.96.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Pittsburgh Riverhounds is the favourite, not a value bet.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion
| Probability | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.7% | 30.8% | 26.4% |
| Market | 51.0% | 26.8% | 22.2% |
| Final | 48.9% | 27.8% | 23.3% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +1.0% | +1.1% |
Why Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.96.
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 48.9% × 1.82 − 1).
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion match preview
The upcoming match between Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion presents an intriguing contest, with the Riverhounds holding a 47% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-0, occurring at an 11% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Pittsburgh recording two wins in their last six matches, while Birmingham has a slightly better record with three wins in the same timeframe.
In terms of expected goals, Pittsburgh Riverhounds are forecasted to score 1.48, compared to Birmingham Legion's 1.01. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 46%, and both teams scoring is assessed at 50%. The recent head-to-head encounters show a balanced competition, with each team winning once and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion attack and defence ratings
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Birmingham Legion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 48.9% | 2.04 | -2.1% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 48.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Birmingham Legion | 23.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.1% |
| No | 53.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion stats
Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion recent form
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
DWLLWD |
| Birmingham Legion |
WDWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds and Birmingham Legion season so far
Pittsburgh Riverhounds record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion record
- They have won 5 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Birmingham Legion | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Birmingham Legion | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Birmingham Legion | USL Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs Birmingham Legion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 26.8%, away 22.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.32 | 4.14 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Dafabet | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.32 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.42 | 4.43 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .