Rhode Island
vs
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rhode Island
1 – 0 Predicted score · 18% model probability
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
| Probability | Rhode Island | Draw | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.6% | 36.7% | 22.8% |
| Market | 51.2% | 29.1% | 19.7% |
| Final | 48.5% | 31.0% | 20.5% |
| Edge | -10.6% | +7.5% | +3.1% |
Why Rhode Island
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.98 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds match preview
Rhode Island faces the Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the USL Championship with a 39% probability of winning, while the Riverhounds have a 25% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Rhode Island, occurring with a 16% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Rhode Island will generate 0.99, compared to Pittsburgh's 0.74, indicating a slight advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Rhode Island has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Conversely, Pittsburgh Riverhounds have shown some resilience, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their recent outings. Historically, the teams have met four times, with Rhode Island winning once and Pittsburgh winning three times, highlighting a competitive edge for the Riverhounds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.64
Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds attack and defence ratings
Rhode Island
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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Before and after this match
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 48.5% | 2.06 | -10.6% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 77.3% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 48.5% |
| Draw | 31.0% | |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 22.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 77.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 31.5% |
| No | 68.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 20.7% |
| 1-0 | 17.7% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds stats
Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds recent form
| Rhode Island |
WLWWLL |
| Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
WLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rhode Island and Pittsburgh Riverhounds season so far
Rhode Island record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds record
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-15 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rhode Island | USL League One Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-05-24 | Rhode Island | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-07 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-13 | Rhode Island | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | USL Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rhode Island vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.9%, draw 29.2%, away 19.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.12 | 4.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.10 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.13 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.15 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.12 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.27 | 4.70 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .