Garuda Lions
Today
USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United

1 – 0 Full time

3′N. Scardina
57′G. LomtadzeP. Santos
59′J. Murphy
61′Y. Tsukada
62′N. FusonLeo Afonso
62′S. KorzeniowskiO. Foyo
62′L. PirasP. Niyongabire
75′J. MurphyL. Butts
75′N. AdnanA. O'Connor
78′Y. Tsukada
78′Y. Tsukada
81′A. Aboukoura
84′J. KwizeraZ. Herivaux
84′N. ScardinaG. Stoneman
87′P. Niyongabire
90′A. Shapiro-ThompsonD. Rovira

Centreville Bank StadiumReferee: A. Pennington

Rhode Island 56%
Draw 23%
Loudoun United 20%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rhode Island vs Loudoun United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRhode IslandDrawLoudoun United
Model44.2%29.6%26.2%
Market60.2%21.4%18.4%
Final56.2%23.5%20.4%
Edge-4.0%+2.1%+1.9%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Rhode Island

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.01.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rhode Island ↓ / Loudoun United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 8% 1 11% 14% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 70%
3+ goals 43%
No goals 10%

Rhode Island and Loudoun United expected goals

Rhode Island 1.38
Loudoun United 1.01

Total expected goals: 2.40

Rhode Island and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings

Rhode Island

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Loudoun United

Attack 1.09 +9%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United: result vs prediction

Rhode Island 1 – 0 Loudoun United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rhode Island 56.2% 1.78 -4.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 57.1% 1.75 — —
Both teams to score No 51.0% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.6% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.8% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rhode Island56.2%
Draw23.5%
Loudoun United20.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542.9%
Under 2.557.1%
Both teams to scoreYes49.0%
No51.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.6%
12 (either side)76.5%
X2 (draw or away)43.8%
Handicap -1Rhode Island win21.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss55.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
1-011.3%
0-010.4%

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United stats

Rhode Island and Loudoun United recent form

newest first
Rhode Island LWWLLW
Loudoun United WDWLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rhode Island and Loudoun United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rhode Island record

  • They have won 11 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Loudoun United record

  • They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

1Rhode Island wins 3Draws 1Loudoun United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-13Loudoun UnitedRhode IslandUSL Championship1-4
2025-08-09Rhode IslandLoudoun UnitedUSL Championship0-0
2025-03-29Loudoun UnitedRhode IslandUSL Championship2-0
2024-10-13Rhode IslandLoudoun UnitedUSL Championship0-0
2024-08-24Loudoun UnitedRhode IslandUSL Championship0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Rhode Island vs Loudoun United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.2%, draw 21.4%, away 18.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.47 4.30 5.20
Bet365 1.55 4.50 4.00
BetVictor 1.53 4.10 5.25
Betano 1.55 4.15 4.70
Betfair 1.44 4.33 5.00
Dafabet 1.57 4.30 5.00
Marathonbet 1.46 4.30 5.00
Pinnacle 1.56 4.68 4.97
William Hill 1.50 4.20 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.53 ▲ +0.03
X 4.30 ▲ +0.10
2 5.00 ▼ -0.25

6 snapshots recorded, from .