Rhode Island
vs
Loudoun United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rhode Island
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rhode Island vs Loudoun United
| Probability | Rhode Island | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 26.6% | 20.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.0% | 26.6% | 20.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Rhode Island
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United match preview
Rhode Island enters this match with a 53% probability of winning, while Loudoun United has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, with an 11% probability. Rhode Island's expected goals stand at 1.67, compared to Loudoun United's 0.96, suggesting a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Rhode Island has recorded two wins, one loss, one draw, and another win in their last five matches. In contrast, Loudoun United has struggled, with only one win and four losses in their last six games. The head-to-head record over the last three encounters shows parity, with each team securing one win and one draw. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rhode Island and Loudoun United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Rhode Island and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings
Rhode Island
Loudoun United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 53.0% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Loudoun United | 20.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win | 29.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | |
| 2-0 | 10.1% |
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United stats
Rhode Island and Loudoun United recent form
| Rhode Island |
WWLLWD |
| Loudoun United |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rhode Island and Loudoun United season so far
Rhode Island record
- They have won 11 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Loudoun United record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rhode Island vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Loudoun United | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-09 | Rhode Island | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Loudoun United | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.