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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Miami FC vs Loudoun United

0 – 2 Full time

33′A. Rocha
46′D. MelloG. Diaz
46′B. NdiayeH. Al Zubaidi
64′G. LomtadzeP. Santos
81′R. ToriJ. Medranda
82′A. Milesi
83′A. WattsL. Butts
85′E. Davis III
85′K. AwuahP. Niyongabire
86′M. RomeroM. Mlekus
89′M. Tunbridge
90′E. Davis III

Riccardo Silva StadiumReferee: J. Escobar

Miami FC 53%
Draw 23%
Loudoun United 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Miami FC vs Loudoun United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Miami FC vs Loudoun United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMiami FCDrawLoudoun United
Model53.1%23.0%23.9%
Market52.7%23.0%24.2%
Final52.8%23.0%24.1%
Edge+0.1%+0.0%-0.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Miami FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.35.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Miami FC ↓ / Loudoun United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 7% 4+ 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Miami FC and Loudoun United expected goals

Miami FC 2.06
Loudoun United 1.35

Total expected goals: 3.41

Miami FC and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings

Miami FC

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Loudoun United

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Miami FC vs Loudoun United: result vs prediction

Miami FC 0 – 2 Loudoun United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Miami FC vs Loudoun United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Miami FC 52.8% 1.89 +0.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.3% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.6% 1.53 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.0% 2.13 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Miami FC52.8%
Draw23.0%
Loudoun United24.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%
Both teams to scoreYes65.6%
No34.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.9%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)47.2%
Handicap -1Miami FC win32.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.9%
Loss47.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-19.5%
2-07.0%

Miami FC vs Loudoun United stats

Miami FC and Loudoun United recent form

newest first
Miami FC WWWWDD
Loudoun United DWLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Miami FC and Loudoun United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Miami FC record

  • They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.

Loudoun United record

  • They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Miami FC vs Loudoun United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Miami FC wins 3Draws 4Loudoun United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-21Loudoun UnitedMiami FCUSL Championship0-0
2025-08-30Loudoun UnitedMiami FCUSL Championship3-1
2025-05-17Miami FCLoudoun UnitedUSL Championship2-1
2024-08-03Loudoun UnitedMiami FCUSL Championship4-1
2024-06-22Miami FCLoudoun UnitedUSL Championship2-2
2023-07-29Loudoun UnitedMiami FCUSL Championship1-2
2023-06-17Miami FCLoudoun UnitedUSL Championship1-2
2022-07-23Loudoun UnitedMiami FCUSL Championship1-2
2022-03-26Miami FCLoudoun UnitedUSL Championship0-0
2021-10-10Loudoun UnitedMiami FCUSL Championship3-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Miami FC vs Loudoun United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 52.5%, draw 23.3%, away 24.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.72 3.86 3.76
Bet365 1.73 4.00 3.70
BetVictor 1.73 4.00 3.90
Betano 1.72 3.90 3.75
Betfair 1.70 3.90 3.80
Dafabet 1.79 4.10 3.75
Marathonbet 1.70 3.86 3.68
Pinnacle 1.78 4.21 3.86
William Hill 1.75 3.50 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.73 ▼ -0.27
X 3.95 ▲ +0.35
2 3.75 ▲ +0.69

12 snapshots recorded, from .