Miami FC
vs
Loudoun United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Miami FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Miami FC vs Loudoun United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Miami FC vs Loudoun United
| Probability | Miami FC | Draw | Loudoun United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 23.1% | 23.9% |
| Market | 52.8% | 23.1% | 24.1% |
| Final | 52.8% | 23.1% | 24.1% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
Why Miami FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United match preview
Miami FC enters this match with a solid recent form, recording four wins and a draw in their last six matches. They have an expected goals figure of 2.06, indicating a strong attacking performance. In contrast, Loudoun United has struggled recently, with only one win in their last six games, leading to an expected goals of 1.35.
The model suggests a 53% probability of a Miami FC victory, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 at 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 66% probability for over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head record shows parity, with each team having one win and one draw in their last three encounters, adding an intriguing layer to this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Miami FC and Loudoun United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
Miami FC and Loudoun United attack and defence ratings
Miami FC
Loudoun United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
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- Charleston Battery vs Louisville City — team news & stats
- Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic — match page
- Detroit City vs Rhode Island
- El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC — match page
- New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay — team news & stats
- Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights
Before and after this match
Miami FC vs Loudoun United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miami FC | 52.8% | 1.89 | +0.3% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Miami FC | 52.8% |
| Draw | 23.1% | |
| Loudoun United | 24.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% |
| No | 34.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Miami FC win | 32.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.0% |
Miami FC vs Loudoun United stats
Miami FC and Loudoun United recent form
| Miami FC |
WWWWDD |
| Loudoun United |
DWLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Miami FC and Loudoun United season so far
Miami FC record
- They have won 9 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 28 matches.
Loudoun United record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Loudoun United | Miami FC | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Loudoun United | Miami FC | USL Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Miami FC | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-08-03 | Loudoun United | Miami FC | USL Championship | 4-1 |
| 2024-06-22 | Miami FC | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-07-29 | Loudoun United | Miami FC | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-06-17 | Miami FC | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-23 | Loudoun United | Miami FC | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-03-26 | Miami FC | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-10 | Loudoun United | Miami FC | USL Championship | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Miami FC vs Loudoun United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.8%, draw 23.1%, away 24.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 3.86 | 3.76 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.95 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.95 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.86 | 3.68 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 4.08 | 3.82 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .