USL Championship
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Loudoun United
vs
Indy Eleven
1 – 1 Full time
| 16′ | E. Davis III | ||
| 39′ | B. Rendon | ||
| 44′ | B. Rendon | ||
| 46′ | A. QuinnM. Omar | ||
| 58′ | L. Mesanvi | ||
| 64′ | J. O'BrienM. Henry-Scott | ||
| 69′ | R. ZouhirL. Butts | ||
| 73′ | C. TorresG. Lomtadze | ||
| 75′ | M. Omar | ||
| 77′ | B. RendonE. Kizza | ||
| 77′ | C. LindleyP. Craig | ||
| 80′ | P. NiyongabireP. Santos | ||
| 80′ | J. MurphyS. Young | ||
| 85′ | L. Butts | ||
| 90′ | P. Santos | ||
| 90′ | L. MesanviH. Barry | ||
| 90′ | J. Farr |
Loudoun United
42%
Draw
26%
Indy Eleven
32%
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven
| Probability | Loudoun United | Draw | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.4% | 27.3% | 28.3% |
| Market | 41.0% | 25.9% | 33.2% |
| Final | 41.8% | 26.2% | 32.0% |
| Edge | +3.4% | +1.4% | -4.8% |
Why Loudoun United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.21.
- The market prices Loudoun United below the model: +3.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
93%
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
No goals
7%
Loudoun United and Indy Eleven expected goals
Loudoun United
1.57
Indy Eleven
1.21
Total expected goals: 2.78
Loudoun United and Indy Eleven attack and defence ratings
Loudoun United
Attack
1.06 +6%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Indy Eleven
Attack
0.85 -15%
Defence
0.99 -1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven: result vs prediction
Loudoun United 1 – 1 Indy Eleven
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Loudoun United | 41.8% | 2.39 | +3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Loudoun United | 41.8% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Indy Eleven | 32.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Loudoun United win | 23.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 55.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 8.5% |
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven stats
Loudoun United and Indy Eleven recent form
| Loudoun United |
WLLLLD |
| Indy Eleven |
LLLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Loudoun United and Indy Eleven going into this match
Loudoun United record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Indy Eleven record
- They have won 9 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Loudoun United wins
1Draws
5Indy Eleven wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Indy Eleven | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Indy Eleven | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Loudoun United | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-08 | Loudoun United | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-13 | Indy Eleven | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-26 | Indy Eleven | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-05-06 | Loudoun United | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-25 | Indy Eleven | Loudoun United | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-03-12 | Loudoun United | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2021-08-18 | Loudoun United | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Loudoun United vs Indy Eleven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.0%, draw 25.9%, away 33.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 4.03 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.25 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.20 | 3.44 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.37 | 3.67 | 2.81 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.23 ▲ +0.12
X
3.53 ▼ -0.07
2
2.75 ▼ -0.13
10 snapshots recorded, from .