Rhode Island
vs
Indy Eleven
1 – 0 Full time
| 23′ | S. Korzeniowski | ||
| 39′ | K. Yao | ||
| 60′ | Z. HerivauxA. Shapiro-Thompson | ||
| 63′ | A. Mitrano | ||
| 71′ | J. O'BrienE. Kizza | ||
| 72′ | J. BlakeH. Barry | ||
| 73′ | Y. TsukadaN. Scardina | ||
| 73′ | O. FoyoE. Klein | ||
| 77′ | H. Bacharach Capdevila | ||
| 77′ | A. Quinn | ||
| 81′ | K. Smith | ||
| 81′ | A. QuinnC. Lindley | ||
| 83′ | Leo Afonso | ||
| 85′ | S. McAuley | ||
| 90′ | Leo AfonsoN. Pierre |
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven
| Probability | Rhode Island | Draw | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.2% | 30.3% | 24.6% |
| Market | 51.0% | 24.5% | 24.5% |
| Final | 49.6% | 25.9% | 24.5% |
| Edge | -5.8% | +5.8% | +0.1% |
Why Rhode Island
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.35 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rhode Island and Indy Eleven expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.28
Rhode Island and Indy Eleven attack and defence ratings
Rhode Island
Indy Eleven
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven: result vs prediction
Rhode Island 1 – 0 Indy Eleven
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 49.6% | 2.02 | -5.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.8% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rhode Island | 49.6% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Indy Eleven | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rhode Island win | 22.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 54.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.5% |
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven stats
Rhode Island and Indy Eleven recent form
| Rhode Island |
LLWDLW |
| Indy Eleven |
LLWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rhode Island and Indy Eleven going into this match
Rhode Island record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Indy Eleven record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Indy Eleven | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Rhode Island | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Indy Eleven | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Indy Eleven | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 2-3 |
| 2024-08-07 | Indy Eleven | Rhode Island | USL Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-05 | Rhode Island | Indy Eleven | USL Championship | 3-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rhode Island vs Indy Eleven odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.5%, draw 24.4%, away 24.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 4.14 | 3.84 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.60 | 3.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.76 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 4.16 | 3.65 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .