Garuda Lions
Today
USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC

0 – 2 Full time

10′A. Milesi
16′A. Quinn
17′R. Da Costa
20′B. Ndiaye
44′M. Tunbridge
46′D. SingM. Rasheed
55′D. Knutson
59′B. NdiayeTulu
61′C. D. Milanes Navarro
63′P. CraigH. Barry
69′M. TunbridgeT. Musto
75′J. O'BrienE. Kizza
85′A. RochaJ. Medranda
90′J. Hafferty

Michael A. Carroll StadiumReferee: C. Rodriguez

Indy Eleven 55%
Draw 23%
Miami FC 22%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Indy Eleven vs Miami FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIndy ElevenDrawMiami FC
Model58.6%23.3%18.2%
Market54.3%22.9%22.8%
Final55.3%23.0%21.7%
Edge+4.3%+0.4%-4.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Indy Eleven

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.04.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Indy Eleven below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Indy Eleven ↓ / Miami FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 11% 2 10% 10% 3 6% 7% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Indy Eleven and Miami FC expected goals

Indy Eleven 2.00
Miami FC 1.04

Total expected goals: 3.04

Indy Eleven and Miami FC attack and defence ratings

Indy Eleven

Attack 1.01 +1%
Defence 0.93 -7%

Miami FC

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.32 +32%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC: result vs prediction

Indy Eleven 0 – 2 Miami FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Indy Eleven 55.3% 1.81 +4.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.0% 1.76 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 78.3% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.4% 2.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Indy Eleven55.3%
Draw23.0%
Miami FC21.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
Both teams to scoreYes57.0%
No43.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)78.3%
12 (either side)77.0%
X2 (draw or away)44.7%
Handicap -1Indy Eleven win35.9%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss41.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.9%
2-19.9%
2-09.5%

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC stats

Indy Eleven and Miami FC recent form

newest first
Indy Eleven LWDDLW
Miami FC WDDLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Indy Eleven and Miami FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Indy Eleven record

  • They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Miami FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 25 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Indy Eleven wins 1Draws 2Miami FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-15Miami FCIndy ElevenUSL Championship2-0
2025-08-23Indy ElevenMiami FCUSL Championship3-2
2025-04-16Indy ElevenMiami FCUS Open Cup1-0
2025-03-15Miami FCIndy ElevenUSL Championship1-3
2024-09-28Indy ElevenMiami FCUSL Championship4-0
2024-05-12Miami FCIndy ElevenUSL Championship1-3
2023-09-02Indy ElevenMiami FCUSL Championship1-0
2023-08-12Miami FCIndy ElevenUSL Championship0-1
2022-07-02Indy ElevenMiami FCUSL Championship0-1
2022-06-08Miami FCIndy ElevenUSL Championship1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Indy Eleven vs Miami FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 22.9%, away 22.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.66 3.92 4.02
Bet365 1.67 3.80 3.80
BetVictor 1.67 4.00 4.20
Betano 1.72 4.05 3.65
Betfair 1.67 4.00 4.00
Marathonbet 1.64 3.92 3.94
Pinnacle 1.71 4.30 4.20
William Hill 1.67 3.90 3.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.04
X 3.96 ▼ -0.01
2 3.97 ▲ +0.15

12 snapshots recorded, from .