Garuda Lions
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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Rhode Island vs Miami FC

1 – 2 Full time

25′A. Rocha
29′J. Kwizera
36′K. Yao
39′R. Tori
53′M. Tunbridge
54′A. Shapiro-Thompson
56′F. Nodarse
59′O. FoyoN. Fuson
64′H. Al ZubaidiM. Romero
66′N. Fuson
69′C. D. Milanes Navarro
70′J. SonoraG. Diaz
74′C. D. Milanes Navarro
79′Y. TsukadaD. Atkinson
79′N. ScardinaZ. Herivaux
80′A. Shapiro-ThompsonE. Klein
81′R. ToriA. Calfo
81′M. TunbridgeD. Mello

Centreville Bank StadiumReferee: G. Flores

Rhode Island 67%
Draw 20%
Miami FC 13%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Rhode Island vs Miami FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Rhode Island vs Miami FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRhode IslandDrawMiami FC
Model70.0%19.8%10.2%
Market66.4%19.9%13.7%
Final67.3%19.9%12.8%
Edge+3.6%-0.2%-3.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Rhode Island

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.73.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Rhode Island below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Rhode Island ↓ / Miami FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 9% 2 13% 9% 3 9% 7% 4+ 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Rhode Island and Miami FC expected goals

Rhode Island 2.21
Miami FC 0.73

Total expected goals: 2.94

Rhode Island and Miami FC attack and defence ratings

Rhode Island

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Miami FC

Attack 0.88 -12%
Defence 1.40 +40%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Rhode Island vs Miami FC: result vs prediction

Rhode Island 1 – 2 Miami FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Rhode Island vs Miami FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Rhode Island 67.3% 1.49 +3.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.4% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score No 52.7% 1.90 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 87.2% 1.15 — —
Handicap -1 Rhode Island win 47.1% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Rhode Island67.3%
Draw19.9%
Miami FC12.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.4%
Under 2.543.6%
Both teams to scoreYes47.3%
No52.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)87.2%
12 (either side)80.1%
X2 (draw or away)32.7%
Handicap -1Rhode Island win47.1%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss29.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.8%
1-010.8%
2-19.5%

Rhode Island vs Miami FC stats

Rhode Island and Miami FC recent form

newest first
Rhode Island WDLWLW
Miami FC DDLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Rhode Island and Miami FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Rhode Island record

  • They have won 9 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Miami FC record

  • They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 24 matches.
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rhode Island vs Miami FC head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

3Rhode Island wins 0Draws 2Miami FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-28Miami FCRhode IslandUSL Championship2-1
2025-09-19Miami FCRhode IslandUSL Championship0-1
2025-06-07Rhode IslandMiami FCUSL Championship0-1
2024-10-27Rhode IslandMiami FCUSL Championship8-1
2024-07-13Miami FCRhode IslandUSL Championship2-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Rhode Island vs Miami FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 66.5%, draw 19.8%, away 13.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.34 4.55 7.13
Bet365 1.38 4.20 6.25
BetVictor 1.36 4.75 7.00
Betano 1.40 4.45 6.20
Betfair 1.33 4.60 6.50
Marathonbet 1.33 4.60 6.70
Pinnacle 1.39 5.12 6.76
William Hill 1.36 4.40 6.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.38 ▲ +0.03
X 4.60 ▼ -0.05
2 6.70 ▼ -0.19

12 snapshots recorded, from .