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USL Championship · Full time ·Group Stage

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX

4 – 1 Full time

9′J. SonoraT. Musto
29′R. Edwards
30′W. KuzainW. Ackwei
35′W. Ackwei
38′A. Rocha
42′C. D. Milanes Navarro
43′Jean Mota
46′M. GodinhoH. Neville
52′H. Neville
66′J. Rossiter
68′V. AlvaradoD. Wilson
75′A. RochaD. Mello
75′B. NdiayeTulu
80′M. Tunbridge
80′T. RobertsR. Pedder
80′K. SadlierA. Luckhurst
82′A. Milesi
85′C. D. Milanes Navarro
85′M. TunbridgeJ. Medranda
85′A. RogersJ. Levin
88′Jean Mota
90′H. NevilleM. Traore

Riccardo Silva StadiumReferee: M. Hassan

Miami FC 61%
Draw 21%
Sporting JAX 18%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Miami FC vs Sporting JAX

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMiami FCDrawSporting JAX
Model66.8%18.2%15.0%
Market58.6%22.3%19.1%
Final60.6%21.3%18.1%
Edge+8.2%-4.1%-4.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Miami FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 1.23.
  • The market prices Miami FC below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Miami FC ↓ / Sporting JAX → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 2 7% 9% 5% 3 6% 8% 4+ 8% 10% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 97%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 74%
No goals 3%

Miami FC and Sporting JAX expected goals

Miami FC 2.63
Sporting JAX 1.23

Total expected goals: 3.86

Miami FC and Sporting JAX attack and defence ratings

Miami FC

Attack 0.96 -4%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Sporting JAX

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.83 +83%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX: result vs prediction

Miami FC 4 – 1 Sporting JAX

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Miami FC 60.6% 1.65 +8.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 74.1% 1.35 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.3% 1.51 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.9% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Miami FC win 46.6% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Miami FC60.6%
Draw21.3%
Sporting JAX18.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574.1%
Under 2.525.9%
Both teams to scoreYes66.3%
No33.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.9%
12 (either side)78.7%
X2 (draw or away)39.4%
Handicap -1Miami FC win46.6%
Push (exactly one goal)20.2%
Loss33.2%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.0%
3-17.9%
1-17.5%

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX stats

Miami FC and Sporting JAX recent form

newest first
Miami FC WWDDLL
Sporting JAX LLLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Miami FC and Sporting JAX going into this match

league record before kick-off

Miami FC record

  • They have won 7 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.

Sporting JAX record

  • They have won 3 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 26 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

2Miami FC wins 0Draws 0Sporting JAX wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Sporting JAXMiami FCUSL League One Cup0-1
2026-03-25Sporting JAXMiami FCUSL Championship2-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Miami FC vs Sporting JAX odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 58.6%, draw 22.3%, away 19.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.58 4.81 4.80
Bet365 1.55 4.10 4.50
BetVictor 1.55 4.33 4.80
Betano 1.57 3.95 4.70
Betfair 1.53 4.33 4.60
Marathonbet 1.53 3.80 4.95
Pinnacle 1.61 4.03 5.39
William Hill 1.55 4.00 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 ▼ -0.12
X 4.06 ▲ +0.41
2 4.75 ▲ +0.35

6 snapshots recorded, from .