Sporting JAX
vs
Birmingham Legion
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham Legion
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion
| Probability | Sporting JAX | Draw | Birmingham Legion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 18.7% | 57.4% |
| Market | 30.0% | 24.2% | 45.8% |
| Final | 28.5% | 22.8% | 48.7% |
| Edge | -6.0% | -5.6% | +11.6% |
Why Birmingham Legion
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.82.
- The market prices Birmingham Legion below the model: +11.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion match preview
Sporting JAX faces Birmingham Legion in an upcoming USL Championship match on October 10, 2026. The probabilities indicate a challenging contest for Sporting JAX, with a 24% chance of winning compared to Birmingham Legion's 57%. The expected goals suggest a competitive edge for Birmingham Legion, with 2.77 expected goals against Sporting JAX's 1.82. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%.
Recent form shows Sporting JAX struggling, with four losses in their last six matches, while Birmingham Legion has a mixed record, with two wins and four draws in the same timeframe. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is high at 84%, and both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 79%. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.58
Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion attack and defence ratings
Sporting JAX
Birmingham Legion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- Charleston Battery vs Louisville City — team news & stats
- Indy Eleven vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds v Hartford Athletic — match page
- Miami FC vs Loudoun United — team news & stats
- Detroit City vs Rhode Island
- El Paso Locomotive v Orange County SC — match page
- New Mexico United vs Monterey Bay — team news & stats
- Phoenix Rising vs Las Vegas Lights
Before and after this match
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham Legion | 48.7% | 2.05 | +11.6% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting JAX | 28.5% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Birmingham Legion | 48.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 83.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 16.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.0% |
| No | 21.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham Legion win | 38.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.1% |
| 1-3 | 6.5% | |
| 2-2 | 6.5% |
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion stats
Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion recent form
| Sporting JAX |
LLLLWL |
| Birmingham Legion |
LWLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting JAX and Birmingham Legion season so far
Sporting JAX record
- They have won 3 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham Legion record
- They have won 4 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Birmingham Legion | Sporting JAX | USL Championship | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting JAX vs Birmingham Legion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 24.2%, away 45.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.78 | 1.92 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.90 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.06 |
| Marathonbet | 3.05 | 3.78 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.08 | 3.96 | 2.04 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .